Elliot Abrams

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Thanksgiving Travel Weather in the Northeast

November 19, 2012; 8:59 AM ET

Monday 9:30 AM

With a high pressure area over the Northeast and a strong storm well east of the Carolinas, it should remain rain-free most or all of this week from Maryland to Maine and out into the Great Lakes region. Two concerns: (1) light flow off the ocean has produced patches of clouds from New Jersey and Delaware west to the the Appalachians. These cloud decks are notoriously difficult to predict, but they should not cause precipitation; (2) with light winds, clear nights can allow temperatures to drop to the saturation point, and this can mean late night and morning fog. Since the sun is much lower in the sky than during other times of the year, there is less energy available to warm up and dry out the low-level chilly air each day.

A strong cold front will cross the Great Lakes Friday and then speed off the East Coast. Sharply chillier air will move in behind the front and there could be an outbreak (rather brief... 12-24 hours) of lake-effect snow from the eastern Great Lakes into the mountains. While the cold shot will not be permanent, it appears the regime will change to one that features a succession of cold fronts, with some wintry air behind each front. Any low pressure areas that form while cold air is in place will capable of causing snow. One example of this is depicted on the GFS model (1 AM EST run from Monday) for next Tuesday. The map is here, but I want to stress that this development is far from certain, and that this and other models have offered varying solutions for this time period (as is typical more than a week in advance).

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About This Blog

Elliot Abrams
Elliot Abrams from AccuWeather.com offers this Northeast Weather Blog for the U.S. with regular updates on NE weather from a leading forecaster and meteorologist.