Tuesday 9 a.m.
The high pressure area that brought pleasant weather to the Northeast is being followed by a southerly flow of increasing humid and warm air. At the same time, a stream of small disturbances is moving east. This can create zones or pockets of heavy rain. During the coming weekend, the pattern may return to one that favors cooler, drier weather again.
This map shows several boundaries; these are often clues to where concentrated showers are most likely. When the showers are arranged in lines parallel to winds aloft, they can form trains that roll over the same spots for hours and cause flash flooding.
Recently, when cool air masses have moved across the Great Lakes, clouds and showers have broken out downwind. This effect has been pronounced over relatively shallow Lake Erie, which is often the warmest of the Great Lakes. This map shows a forecast of the water temperatures in the region next Sunday.
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Street flooding in some of the heavier rain
Such is the stuff that generates rumors, worries or snowstorm dreams that later turn out to be unfounded.
As we close out November and start December this week, the Northeast will have two rounds of rain and a warmup.