Friday 11 a.m.
The storm that unleashed a blizzard in the central Plains has weakened as expected. The low pressure area will be moving over the upper Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow morning then will drift toward the St. Lawrence Valley. Dry air has punched eastward from Illinois through Ohio, and that will help limit how much precipitation there can be between Washington, D.C., and New York City later today and tonight. However, with temperatures not far from the freezing mark, it pays to be alert for slippery conditions tonight, especially in the northern and western suburbs of those cities.
Tomorrow and tomorrow night, a low pressure area will take shape off the Middle Atlantic coast. Rain is likely in the I95 corridor from this storm tomorrow. The remains of the northern storm may cause some snow from central and eastern New York state into parts of New England tomorrow, with light accumulations possible. As the coastal storm strengthens into a full-blown nor'easter on Sunday morning, a band of heavy snow seems likely from eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island through Massachusetts, New Hampshire and southern Maine. In the southeasternmost portion of that area, temperatures will be borderline between rain and snow... and the outcome will greatly affect how much snow can accumulate. Places that get all snow can get more than 8 inches.
Early next week, another storm will move northeast from the southern Plains. While a lot of mild air will be pulled northward ahead of the storm, strong cooling will be taking place aloft from west to east. This could mean accumulating snow all the way from Iowa and Illinois to the mountains of Pennsylvania. The storm may get blocked as it heads toward eastern Canada. If that happens, there can be a multi-day siege of wind and chilly for the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast, with snow showers downwind from the Great Lakes into the mountains. This kind of setup will cause many people to long for spring, but I know Sam the Dog will appreciate any snow that gives him the opportunity to go "snow-bathing."
Labor Day is a week from Monday. The computer model used here, the GFS ensemble mean, suggests the weather will favor outdoor late summer activities across the Great Lakes and Northeast:
In response to heating at ground level and a weak cold front approaching from the west, showers and locally strong thunderstorms should develop across northern Ohio this afternoon.
... much greater interest is being generated on threats and rumors about tropical storms. It is worthwhile to read Dan Kottlowski's authoritative reports on this. Here is a copy of his map from this morning:
The tropical Atlantic shows signs of life in the storm development department. Dan Kottlowski's expert discussion suggests the third storm (which could be Hermine) of current concern is one that could head to the Bahamas, Florida, the Gulf or ???
A large high pressure area centered just south of Chicago will furnish a northwesterly of pleasantly cool and dry air to the eastern Great Lakes and all of the Northeast today into Tuesday.
As the trough moves through each locality, warm humid weather will be followed by showers and thunderstorms, then cooler an drier air will arrive