Thursday 9:30 a.m.
The dreariness of yesterday morning in the Northeast has been replaced by dazzling sunshine and deep blue skies. A fast-moving cold front will send clouds streaming across the Great Lakes then New York and New England today and tonight, then a large high pressure area from western Canada will move for the start of the weekend. You can see and hear what this high pressure area should do in this video, along with what the flow behind it should accomplish later in the weekend.
In the short burst of cold air into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow, showers will break out in the same areas that had them last night and this morning. Since this air mass is a little colder, snow showers are likely over the higher terrain southeast of Lake Ontario. Snow showers with lightning and thunder hit the Tug Hill Plateau last night, and the same thing can happen late tonight or tomorrow morning.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to break out in the middle of the country late tomorrow and tomorrow night, then rain and thunderstorms will advance into the Great Lakes for Saturday. A switch to a southwesterly flow aloft should keep the moisture mostly north of the Middle Atlantic states for much of Sunday... but as a cold front swings around a few showers should reach the area from southern New York to Virginia on Monday.
In most of the Northeast, it is a dazzling day, with the bright sun playing off the leaves that change hue by the day. It's quite a contrast from the dull dreariness much of the region experienced the first half of the week.
In yesterday's report I made an analogy about predicting snow amounts using our 16 year old American Eskimo dog Sam as an example. I told Sam about it before taking this picture, but he just looked at me.
This map shows the pressure pattern around the big storm that some people in Boston and Providence are comparing with the Blizzard of '78.
In the worst-hit areas, plan for travel bans (for all non-emergency activities) because of impassable roads and extremely poor visibility. This map shows our projection for snow accumulations by early Wednesday. In many areas the heaviest snow should fall overnight and tomorrow morning.
In the worst-hit areas, plan for travel bans (for all non-emergency activities) because of impassable roads and extremely poor visibility. If you get stranded, rescue crews may not be able to reach you. Storms like this sometimes generate thunderstorms within the heaviest snow bands. The map shows predicted snow accumulations by early Wednesday.
It appears likely that many normal activities can go on through the day Monday, as long as the typical cautions for light to moderate snowfalls are observed. Tuesday will be an <strong>entirely different story</strong>. This map shows the GFS- predicted snowfall through 7 P.M. ET Monday:
The second storm we have been talking about will affect the Middle Atlantic region late Sunday and Sunday night. This GFS forecast map is for 7PM ET Sunday and shows precipitation amounts for the 6 hours up to that time.