Thursday 9:30 a.m.
The dreariness of yesterday morning in the Northeast has been replaced by dazzling sunshine and deep blue skies. A fast-moving cold front will send clouds streaming across the Great Lakes then New York and New England today and tonight, then a large high pressure area from western Canada will move for the start of the weekend. You can see and hear what this high pressure area should do in this video, along with what the flow behind it should accomplish later in the weekend.
In the short burst of cold air into the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow, showers will break out in the same areas that had them last night and this morning. Since this air mass is a little colder, snow showers are likely over the higher terrain southeast of Lake Ontario. Snow showers with lightning and thunder hit the Tug Hill Plateau last night, and the same thing can happen late tonight or tomorrow morning.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to break out in the middle of the country late tomorrow and tomorrow night, then rain and thunderstorms will advance into the Great Lakes for Saturday. A switch to a southwesterly flow aloft should keep the moisture mostly north of the Middle Atlantic states for much of Sunday... but as a cold front swings around a few showers should reach the area from southern New York to Virginia on Monday.
In most of the Northeast, it is a dazzling day, with the bright sun playing off the leaves that change hue by the day. It's quite a contrast from the dull dreariness much of the region experienced the first half of the week.
It does look warmer for the weekend, but every time the warm air tries to extend into New England it gets chopped down. There could be more showers at times Sunday and early next week as forest we can tell. If any forecast gives you a headache, why not take a friend's advice: Take two aspen; sequoia in the morning.
This map from 5AM ET shows the cold front that is continuing toward this Northeast and Middle Atlantic states. Temperatures stayed up in the 70s all night ahead of the front but it turned noticeably cooler after the front moved through.
The cold front that will cut off the heat will generate strong gusty thunderstorms as it moves southeastward today. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center highlights the most likely area for these severe thunderstorms today and tonight.
As the high pressure area in the Northeast moves away, the the southwesterly flow pattern will shift eastward. This means Wednesday could be the hottest day of the week from D.C. to Boston. A cold front will follow.
This is a satellite picture showing rather tame conditions off the South Atlantic coast at 7:45 AM ET today. The area is being watched for any signs of storm development.
When looked at this way, you can see two distinct flows in the East: one from the south with moisture, and one from the west that is dry. There is a problem, however: the model solutions evolve over time, and as we get closer to next Monday afternoon (the time the forecast maps are using), the lines and orientations will probably change.