A southwesterly flow aloft from Texas to New England through the weekend assure unseasonably warm weather for most of the I-95 corridor. There is a cold front from eastern Canada that will slide slowly south and stall in central New England. The front could jump back north on Sunday, but there is much uncertainty about temperatures. This map shows a projection from last night's European model. It shows huge temperature differences in a short distance across northern and central New England:
While the East Coast has exceptionally mild weather, there is a possibility for pockets of dense fog as the warm, increasingly humid air passes over the cold ground. You may have seen this effect in operation in spring and early summer at the seashore.
Meanwhile, cold air will advance across the Great Lakes... slowly at first, then more quickly during the second half of the weekend. Along and ahead of the cold front, locally heavy rain and even thunderstorms. There can be some flash flooding; also damaging winds in some thunderstorms. Behind the cold front there will be a transition from rain, to hazardous ice then to snow. Some places from Kansas to Wisconsin can get 6-12 inches of snow. When the cold front goes off the East coast Monday and Monday night, dry cold air will flow into the Northeast and the warm spell will be over. Here's the video forecast:
This series of maps shows how the extreme cold today in the Northeast is replaced by somewhat milder air tomorrow and Saturday.
This pressure map shows the storm center. The front to the east (red line) marks the boundary between warm air to the south and progressively colder air to the north.
This draft forecast map shows the heaviest snow from the upcoming storm is likely from northern Illinois to northern New England. Tomorrow afternoon, conditions may range from blizzard conditions in central New York to spring style thunderstorms in southern Pennsylvania.
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.