The fairly weak low pressure area that should give places from parts of Maryland, southern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey some snow tonight will be offshore tomorrow. The GFS and NAM models are slightly less bold on this feature than they were last night. The Euro has never been very strong on it either. In addition to the prospect of slippery conditions from the snow, wet areas may freeze late tonight as the storm leaves... if skies clear. Here is today's video.
One thing I have confidence in is the two- to maybe three-day cold shot that will affect the Great Lakes then the Northeast as we approach and go through the weekend. There are various hypothetical storm out there on the model projections (perhaps a week to 10 days out from today). We'll see what they do in future episodes. This cloud picture is an enhanced infrared view that includes the system that will bring rain and snow to the Middle Atlantic states later today and tonight.
Yesterday, the temperature hit 92 at Newark, New Jersey, and 90 in Boston. The following map shows a northerly flow affecting the Northeast today, and so it will be noticeably cooler and less humid.
This map shows lightning strokes from 8 a.m. ET yesterday through 7:54 a.m. ET today. There was quite a bit of it in Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. For the whole map, 156,172 lightning strokes were recorded.
Looking at the west-to-east upper air flow over New England well ahead of the storm, it seems like the hurricane should stay out at sea, However, as we look through the series of maps, we see the upper-air flow congealing into a strong eastern trough that helped the storm to come right up the coast instead of heading out to sea.
On this satellite picture, we can see the basically dry weather in the Eastern states. The cold front that will ease the midweek heat in the Northeast is shown by the band of thunderstorms in the Midwest. The thunderstorms may weaken and become more scattered as the front comes into the Northeast.
A storm in the tropical Atlantic is being observed for possible strengthening. This map shows the variety of models purporting to show where the center will go. Most solutions suggest it stays well offshore, but you will notice a few outliers suggesting more threat.
For example, the purple line in the east marks the boundary between air coming in from the ocean and a southwesterly current of warmer air. That boundary was the scene of showers and thunderstorms when it was in the middle of Pennsylvania yesterday, and was associated with rain that moved through the Hudson Valley early this morning.