Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
More than 110,000 lightning strikes occurred in the northeast third of the nation in the 24 hours ending at 11 a.m. EDT today (June 13).
This map shows the low pressure at the western edge. The isobars help define the location of the frontal boundary between the hot and cool air masses.
This map shows the area that could have damaging thunderstorms tomorrow and tomorrow night.
The Northeast regional radar at 10 AM showed a large area affected by showers and thunderstorms:
Whereas Andrea was centered in eastern South Carolina at 8 a.m., this satellite water vapor image shows the greatest concentration of moisture is well northeast of the surface circulation center
Quite a few models are in use, and this map shows there is widespread agreement on where the center of this storm is going.
Elliot Abrams
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