Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
Once again, the rain will miss much of central and northern New England. The region has been in a dry spell, as evidenced by its appearance on this U.S Drought Monitor map.
A cold front crossed the Northeast yesterday. Looking at these maps, which show morning temperatures yesterday versus readings around the same time today, we can see that the biggest drop in temperatures occurred around the lower Great Lakes.
Much of eastern New England has been in a dry spell ever since the last snow melted. More dry weather is on the way from tomorrow through the end of the week. This radar image taken at mid-morning Tuesday is peppered with showers.
Cooling will also occur from Wisconsin into western Michigan as a cold front moves eastward. This map shows the arrangement of fronts and the area of relatively warm air between the two cool air masses:
The worst storms later in the weekend will precede the cold front that brings cooler air back into the Northeast next week. This map shows the threat as outlined by the NWS Storm Prediction Center:
With the dry weather now affecting the Northeast, are any signs of change? These two maps show the GFS-predicted total rainfall (1) between today and the end of this weekend and (2) between today and the Saturday of next weekend (Memorial Day weekend).