Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
There's a west to northwesterly flow of basically dry air from south-central Canada to the northern part of the Middle Atlantic states. The flow changes orientation farther south. A light northerly flow is helping slightly less humid air to seep southward.
In parts of the Northeast, a sky looking as blue and clear as the one in the picture will be quite a departure from the look of the rainy skies that were much more common earlier in the summer.
The steering winds aloft are changing, and the next phase looks like it will feature a northwesterly flow of cooler air this weekend and much of next week.
It's going to be hot hazy and humid in the much of the Northeast today through Thursday. The recalescent, sudorific, canicular, pyrogenic frying heat gains our attention.
A line of persistent showers and thunderstorms stretched from Long Island Sound to Cape Cod. Some areas in this zone had more than 3 inches of rain this morning, and there can be highway flooding in localized heavy showers this afternoon and evening. This radar shows the rain zone just after 10 a.m. ET.
This map shows the predicted upper-air flow for tomorrow night. Our timing estimates suggest showers and some thunderstorms could affect the I-95 corridor from Portland and Boston to New York City (and perhaps Philadelphia) on Sunday.