Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
This map shows where Hurricane Joaquin was just before 8 a.m. ET. You can also see the stripe of clouds centered just of the Middle and North Atlantic coasts.
There are competing forces acting on it, and each move it makes will place it under different influences. This has made it very difficult for computer models and meteorologists to judge where it will actually go. This is reflected in the track model collection on this map:
In assessing the final impact of the storm system coming into the East, there are three main components. First is the cold front coming across the Appalachians tonight in a very rich moisture field with ...
On this map, the cold front that will eventually move through the Northeast is in the far northwest corner of the picture. There are areas of showers moving northeastward well ahead of the front, but the steadiest rain is not likely until the cool air moves in and the front stalls.
The Midwest and Northeast are in the latitude zone where winds are primarily from the west. The direct opposite is the case today, as seen on this pressure analysis. The easterly flow brings in moisture from the Atlantic.
The infrared satellite picture below shows the cloudiness as of midmorning on Thursday. If it stays the way it is now, there is no problem in the Northeast. However, on another screen I have been watching the whole area expanding north and west, as indicated on the map.