Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
Here's a cool fact: even when Death Valley, California, has a temperature of 110 or 120 degrees, you only have to go up a little more than 3.5 miles to find temperatures at or below freezing.
It appears the dry comfortable air mass now in the Northeast will be replaced by a humid flow from the South Atlantic states for the coming weekend. An upper-air forecast map sequence in the video shows how this could happen. The following map shows the predicted flow from Florida to New Jersey Friday night.
This map shows the pressure analysis for the Northeast and Great Lakes. The gusty flow on the west side of the low pressure area adds a real autumn feel to the air.
Since individual lines and clusters of thunderstorms have limited life spans and change character constantly, forecasting whether it will or won't rain at any one time this weekend is difficult at best. One solution is to have your tablet or phone available with the AccuWeather.com app so you can see where all the storms are at the times when it concerns you the most.
It does look warmer for the weekend, but every time the warm air tries to extend into New England it gets chopped down. There could be more showers at times Sunday and early next week as forest we can tell. If any forecast gives you a headache, why not take a friend's advice: Take two aspen; sequoia in the morning.
This map from 5AM ET shows the cold front that is continuing toward this Northeast and Middle Atlantic states. Temperatures stayed up in the 70s all night ahead of the front but it turned noticeably cooler after the front moved through.