Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
It does look warmer for the weekend, but every time the warm air tries to extend into New England it gets chopped down. There could be more showers at times Sunday and early next week as forest we can tell. If any forecast gives you a headache, why not take a friend's advice: Take two aspen; sequoia in the morning.
This map from 5AM ET shows the cold front that is continuing toward this Northeast and Middle Atlantic states. Temperatures stayed up in the 70s all night ahead of the front but it turned noticeably cooler after the front moved through.
The cold front that will cut off the heat will generate strong gusty thunderstorms as it moves southeastward today. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center highlights the most likely area for these severe thunderstorms today and tonight.
As the high pressure area in the Northeast moves away, the the southwesterly flow pattern will shift eastward. This means Wednesday could be the hottest day of the week from D.C. to Boston. A cold front will follow.
This is a satellite picture showing rather tame conditions off the South Atlantic coast at 7:45 AM ET today. The area is being watched for any signs of storm development.
When looked at this way, you can see two distinct flows in the East: one from the south with moisture, and one from the west that is dry. There is a problem, however: the model solutions evolve over time, and as we get closer to next Monday afternoon (the time the forecast maps are using), the lines and orientations will probably change.