Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
in response to the approach of a deepening trough from the Plains, a Midwest low pressure area will grow stronger as it moves east to arrive on the New England coast Saturday morning.
In the I-95 corridor from D.C. to NYC, temperatures will be up past 80 this afternoon. However, between now and Saturday, a major change is on he way.
In eastern New England, an onshore flow of cool damp air prevailed all morning. There could be a last-minute warmup this afternoon. The affected areas will certainly be warmer tomrrow morning than they were this morning.
Now, out-of-season warmth is set to be the rule through midweek from the Ohio Valley to much of New England. Peak leaf color in Pennsylvania and New Jersey ranges from now northern mountains) to Halloween (in parts of South Jersey).
The Pacific storm caused some strong thunderstorms in northwest Oregon yesterday, bringing an end to a very long hiatus in the need for tornado warnings there. Note also the lack of tornadoes in eastern Tennessee.
Although the storm is not headed toward the US mainland, 6 to 8 foot waves are found not too far offshore from the Carolinas.