Monday 9:45 AM
A storm crossing the Gulf states dropped heavy rain over a wide area, and the moisture is moving northeastward. However, the upper air trough supporting the rain is shown to weaken slowly on the computer model (I use this term interchangeably with numerical forecasts) maps, and so places in the Northeast should not match the Gulf states in the rainfall amount department. One thing that is apparent is with a persistent flow from the Gulf states to New England, it will be warmer than average for this time of year.
Last week at this time, I showed a GFS forecast map for Oct. 10 that suggested it could snow in central and northern Pennsylvania. I suggested the model would change looks over time and, in fact, the very next run has a warmer look and no snow. On the other hand, a typhoon re-curved over the western Pacific, and this kind of event has often been followed by an upper air trough n the East about 10 days later. The most recent runs of GFS has trended toward this trough in the East scenario, and this suggests next week will be quite a bit cooler than this week (with the first push of cooler air arriving this weekend).
The numerical forecasts (I use this term interchangeably with computer models) for next week will certainly change in various ways before next week arrives, but there are hints that the higher terrain downwind from the Great Lakes could get their first snow showers of the season next week. This map for next Thursday shows a close call setup for this:
Meanwhile, my daily video shows what we can expect this week:
It appears that a large low pressure area will form in the Plains this weekend and then drift very slowly eastward next week. This could lead to a lot of rain over a large area. This map depicts the Euro model predicted rainfall between now at midday Saturday May 3rd.
Thunderstorms broke out in eastern New England this morning. Here is a lightning map showing strikes between 8 a.m. and 10:30 ET:
I'd like to think that my explanations of what was going on enlightened him, but we all know better! This map shows the distribution of lightning from around daybreak yesterday to the wee hours of the morning today.
Omega blocks are known for causing long periods of whatever kind of weather you had when the block was getting established. In other words, if it was rainy, you were in for more (perhaps a lot).
This satellite picture shows the storm that affected the Southeast on Saturday (1) , the frontal system that will reach the East Coast late tomorrow night (2) and a disturbance in the Pacific Northwest that may affect the Northeast at the end of the week (3) .
A deck of clouds about a half-mile overhead spread westward from the Atlantic to much of the I95 corridor from DC to Boston early this morning. These cloud decks can be a forecaster's nightmare in the spring because ...