Northeast U.S. Weather Blog
Showers Fall into Autumn
Sep 20, 2011; 6:53 AM ET
Tuesday 8 a.m.
The video today shows how a wet weather pattern is likely to return to the Northeast, especially from Thursday on. The trouble with this situation is that once the showery pattern is established it could be many days before it ends.
The GFS and ECMWF models differ in their exact placement and amounts of rain from now through the middle of next week, but the picture is not reassuring for the I-95 corridor. In both pictures, we are looking at operational runs... not ensembles. Often, the ensemble means offer the best forecast, but if the individual runs that go into the ensemble vary quite a bit, the ensemble mean will be less able to signal the possibility of an extreme event. As it stands, the rainfall depicted on the GFS could be manageable, but the ECMWF model's rainfall totals would result in at least some flooding.
The GFS version:

The ECMWF version:

Note: Someone in the office wondered what I mean by the title "Showers Fall into Autumn." It has a similar meaning to a forecast that says "rain will be falling into tonight."
The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com
More Elliot Abrams
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Memorial Day Weekend Weather
May 22, 2012; 7:10 AM ET
Until we can tell which solution (or combination of solutions) turns out to be right, we won't have a lot of confidence about where and when thunderstorms will break out at the northern rim of the hot air mass during the holiday weekend. The map below shows the solution that would bring thunderstorms farther south.
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Showers to Dampen the Northeast
May 21, 2012; 7:26 AM ET
This map showed the pressure pattern at 9 a.m. EDT Monday. You can see the east to southeast flow that was bringing ocean air ashore in the Northeast. Also, the NNE-SSW orientation of the isobars was causing clouds to linger on and near the west shore of Lake Michigan.
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Northeast Sunshine but a Storm Forms Offshore
May 18, 2012; 6:30 AM ET
A high pressure area over New York state is providing fine weather for the Northeast as we go into the weekend. This map has isobars that define the pressure pattern in the northeast third of the country now. You can see there is already an easterly flow from Pennsylvania and New Jersey south through the Carolinas.
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Taking Stock in the Weather
May 17, 2012; 8:44 AM ET
Whenever the weather is nice it is great for our mutual fun. For next few days, we see futures of S and P: sunny and pleasant. Bond with your garden: maybe have some hedge fun! Next week, however: IPO (intermittent precipitation outside)
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Fine Weather for the Northeast this Weekend
May 16, 2012; 9:05 AM ET
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area from northern New York state and Vermont southwest into northeast Pennsylvania for the threat of severe thunderstorms with this feature. The threat is pegged at the lowest elevated level, but means you should be extra alert about the weather later today if you live in or near the affected area. This map shows the outline of that area:
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Wet to Wonderful in the Northeast
May 15, 2012; 7:34 AM ET
This rain band is a good example for how you can use accuweather.com on your mobile device to make immediate plans. If you are in the rain area, you can get a sense for when it will end... and if hasn't arrived, the available movie loop will suggest when it should start.
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Dreary to Delightful
May 14, 2012; 7:08 AM ET
The heaviest rain early Monday morning extended from West Virginia to the western Carolinas. This map shows the arrangement and also shows an extensive area of rain extended from Maryland to New England.
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Salad Days
May 11, 2012; 8:54 AM ET
Hopefully, this will prevent the weather from becoming cucumbersome for you. After all, that is how we earn our celeries. Now, on to the video. The first picture refutes the idea it can't be beet.
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Wet to Dry and Cool to Warm
May 10, 2012; 8:15 AM ET
Such an outcome could lead to several days of unsettled and showery weather. The map below is a snapshot forecast for next Monday. We'll look at the situation again tomorrow.
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From the Garden of Gloom to the Palace of Pleasant
May 9, 2012; 7:15 AM ET
This map shows lightning strokes for the 24 hours ending at 8:30 EDT this morning. The lightning in the Midwest was generated when cool aloft interacted with daytime warming near the ground.
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Warmth and Moisture this Week
Apr 30, 2012; 9:00 PM ET
When I recall how it snowed in parts of the northern and central Appalachians last week, the prospect of summer warmth as suggested by the GFS for this Friday represents quite a change.
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Arbor Day: Some Northeast Residents Sycamore Chilly Weather
Apr 27, 2012; 7:25 AM ET
If all this gives you a headache....Take two aspen, sequoia in the morning. The picture at the bottom shows (about) two aspens and one sequoia.
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Chilly Weekend, then a Warm-up
Apr 26, 2012; 9:17 AM ET
Thunderstorms have been common near and south of the boundary between cool air in the north and summer style air in the south. This map shows lightning strikes from 10 a.m. EDT yesterday until just after 10 a.m. today.
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Rain, Rain Went Away, but Comes Again Another Day
Apr 25, 2012; 7:23 AM ET
The disturbance that sends rain to much of the Northeast tomorrow has produced thunderstorms in the middle of the country. Thunderstorms also developed in the mountains farther west. The lightning off the East Coast was from part of the storm that affected the East at the beginning of the week. Here is the plot of lightning strokes from 8 a.m. Eastern time yesterday til 9 a.m. today.
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Big Storm Leaves, So What Comes Next
Apr 24, 2012; 7:07 AM ET
Around Accuweather.com headquarters, we saw snow, but the nearest significant accumulation was on the ridge tops. The camera peers out toward the ridge top and sees what was left of the snow on Tuesday morning.
About This Blog
Elliot AbramsElliot Abrams from AccuWeather.com offers this Northeast Weather Blog for the U.S. with regular updates on NE weather from a leading forecaster and meteorologist.
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