Thursday 9 a.m.
Today's video shows why we are optimistic about weekend sunshine but concerned about locally flooding thunderstorms before that.
When you see our forecasts on AccuWeather.com or listen to the radio or view a newspaper that carries the AccuWeather forecast, it may be difficult for you to decide how rainy or dry any given day is going to be. That's actually one of the best reasons for having our mobile app on your smart phone or tablet, so you can always check the radar for what's happening right now.
Let's face it, in a newspaper that has the whole day's forecast condensed into one icon, or when you listen to a 20-second AccuWeather forecast on the radio, you will not get all the details if it is one of those days when the weather changes frequently. Today, for example, in much of the Northeast we have a forecast that calls for warm, humid weather and a thunderstorm from time to time. While that forecast has a good chance of working out, it doesn't have the level of detail to help you decide whether or not it will rain during a baseball game this evening.
That's where you come in. Since the forecast alerts you about thunderstorms, you will know much more if you check the radar on AccuWeather.com before you leave for the ballpark. It is not a perfect solution, because areas of showers and thunderstorms can change shape and the intensity of the storms can change a lot in a short time. But if the question is simply do I take a poncho to the game or leave it home, you will often make the right choice using the method I outlined.
This map shows where showers and thunderstorms were at 9 a.m. EDT:
One concern: the chance of cold frontal snow squalls that could move all the way to the East Coast tomorrow night. Sudden snow squalls have been implicated in chain reaction collisions that turn deadly and damaging.
These two maps show the change from the very, very cold flow likely this Saturday to the much milder Pacific-origin westerly flow later next week.
When we look more closely, we see a variety of disturbances embedded in the main current, each capable of temporarily increasing or cutting off the chance of snow. This map shows the setup:
This map shows the circulation around the offshore storm and a larger but less intense storm moving into the Great Lakes. With this sprawling storm likely to be in the region for several days, the weather can vary widely.
...speculation about a snowstorm Monday or Tuesday, and one is still possible. However, timing and placement remain elusive. This map shows the GFS ensemble mean "solution" for Tuesday morning showing snow just off the New England coast. Watch this story evolve on accuweather.com all weekend.