Here is my video forecast:
Indoor forecast for Christmas
.Watch Warning is in Effect
.Pine Needle Advisory for Tomorrow
.There is a Paper Cut Watch Out
As we head into the nighttime hours of Christmas Eve, bedtime warnings and hallway watches will be posted for all children, as long as they haven't been storming and thundering around the house. In most areas, a flurry of parcels from various source regions will accumulate under the tree. However, we issue a bright paper and ribbon snipping advisory. If you see this type of activity, we warn you not to watch. It's the same advice we give during solar eclipses. Do not stare directly at bright paper, especially if it is beginning to engulf other objects. If you have a live tree, we advise you to maintain proper water levels; otherwise, the tree will face hazardous thriving conditions. However, if watering is excessive, watch for flooding in poor drainage areas. For Christmas morning, decreasing sleepiness and increasing anticipation. It'll start with paper sticking to most rectangular surfaces, but later the paper will accumulate into ridges and mounds, finally drifting into specified receptacles and getting packed down. Authorities have issued a recycling advisory. With smaller packages, we have issued a watch for unexpected watches. Waves of happiness will run higher than normal, with flurries of thanks and floods of good will, especially at the time of highest Yule Tide. Back near the tree, a sharp warning or pine needle advisory will be in effect in the vicinity.
Christmas Day 2013
The Declaration of Independence was partially signed in the warmth of a Philadelphia summer in 1776. But as 1776 came to a close, it appeared the Revolution might be doomed. George Washington and his forces had suffered a string of losses, and with each loss, there was less and less public support. After all, if the Revolution was lost and the British won, all who participated or aided in the revolt could be tried and convicted of treason against the Crown.
And so, when Washington and his depleted forces dared to cross the icy Delaware River on Christmas night... then cunningly circled around and attacked Trenton from the north with the wind at their backs, sleepy eyed Hessian defenders waking up on the morning after Christmas were greeted by wind-launched darts and tacks of stinging sleet in their faces and a hail of bullets from the Americans who could hardly be seen through the storm.
The stunning victory at Trenton proved to be the turnaround event that fueled the rebel fire once again. But that was far from obvious to George Washington as he and his forces recrossed the river and regrouped. The army was about to dwindle away. Enlistments were up at the stroke of midnight, New Year's Eve. Desperate, and without official authorization, Washington called on the soldiers to stay, offering them a bonus if they extended their enlistments. The soldiers did not respond at first, but then one stepped forward, then another... and then another.
They hatched a plan to attack the British once again. Meanwhile, the snow on the ground melted. The rebels crossed the Delaware again on New Year's Day. This time the British were ready, and the rebels were forced into a corner. They were stranded in muddy fields, backs to the river... with no way to escape. One bold attack by the British would wipe out the American forces and end the war.
But George Washington was a Virginia farmer, and farmers watched the weather. He had experienced winter days with blue skies and northwest winds. He had seen the temperature hold steady during the those days, then sink below freezing at night. He had a thermometer and at noon it was 39 degrees and holding. A stiff northwest had erased the 50-degree weather of the previous day. Washington ordered the troops to prepare huge bonfires after sundown and make the appearance of bustling around in the camp.
Behind the fire glow, it was dark. We in the age of light pollution are not used to the kind of dark faced every moonless night back in the 1700s. But in the darkness, Washington's troops readied their equipment, even wrapping wagon wheels in cloth to minimize the noise. The ground froze. The forces moved out, picking their way northward... away from the encamped British who were lying in wait to mount their own attack at first light.
Dawn broke to the sight of rebel soldiers marching toward Princeton through fields laced with frost. The Battle of Princeton was fierce, but lasted less than an hour. One casualty was General Hugh Mercer. Mercer County. N.J., is named for the fallen patriot. The British were defeated again, and pulled back to their garrisons farther northeast in New Jersey. News of the rebel victories spread like wildfire back in Europe weeks later. Soon the French would be emboldened to declare war on Britain and help the American cause. George Washington and his weary forces set up camp in Morristown, N.J., with hills to offer cover, and yet close enough to their enemy to spy on their activities.
If George Washington had not been up on his weather knowledge, and had not realized it would freeze at night as he did. His forces would have been surrounded and captured the next day. The hard-fought gains at Trenton would be meaningless.
A vast and empty field marks the place where the Battle of Princeton was fought. As I stood there in an icy wind several Decembers ago, storm clouds were increasing. It was a raw and unforgiving wind, a wind soon to be armed with sleet and freezing rain.
Aside from the wind in the trees, it was silent out there in that field. The darkness was moving in. I closed my eyes for a moment, and could almost imagine the footsteps of some of our first war veterans rustling through the fallen frosted leaves so long ago. And I thought a silent thank you. If they hadn't done what they did when they had to, we couldn't do what we want to in freedom... today.
This barn is visible from my house, and here is how it looks when it is snowing:
This map shows the split flow that is predicted to be in place on New Year's Day. Note how the flow reaching northern Pennsylvania originates far north in Canada, whereas to flow aimed at Virginia comes from Mexico.
The maps I searched for were from December 1960. I was 13 and was thoroughly overjoyed when Philadelphia got 14.6 inches on Dec. 11 and 12. Schools were closed for three days, something that did not happen again until the Blizzard of January '96.
At midnight, the temperature will be in the 50s to low 60s from Virginia to Southern New England... more like late spring than Christmas time. Meanwhile, cold air will be advancing into western parts of Pennsylvania and New York, driven by strong winds. Earlier, this "cold" air mass looked like it would be more potent than it has turned out to be. This map shows the pressure pattern and some temperatures at 9 a.m.
Temperatures are likely to be in the 50s from Boston to Washington, D.C., during the nighttime hours of Christmas Eve. Dry chillier weather will arrive during Christmas Day, with dry weather lasting until at least Saturday.
This picture, which may or may not have been taken very recently, has a red dot near the North Pole. I cannot confirm that a red dot is there on the ground or that it means anything. We will monitor the area for any signs of activity and advise everyone to maintain the spirit of being nice and not naughty.
Rain with areas of fog should spread from Virginia to New Jersey Monday or Monday night then spread into New England for Tuesday. From the mountains of northeastern Pennsylvania into the interior of New England this could at least start as snow or ice. The GFS for 1 AM New Year's Day looks interesting. See the map below. Whether or not this storm develops and where it will snow or rain cannot be precisely predicted two weeks in advance using these models.