Friday 9 AM
Sandy continues to threaten the Northeast, and in the area where is comes ashore, there will be damaging winds knocking down trees and cutting power, flooding rain and, at the coast, a dangerous storm surge. Time of that is crucial, because we will be close to the time of the full moon, and range between high tide and low tide is greatest then. This map shows the track forecasts of a wide variety of computer models. Why the differences? Each one has its own way of ingesting data and handling the intricate math associated with second order nonlinear differential equations. A big problem is we simply do not have data for every place in the atmosphere.
This video discusses where the storm is heading now, what should happen next, and what some of the effects will be. Unfortunately, this kind of storm can affect millions and cost billions.
In the Northeast, a high pressure area now in control will be reinforced by another high from northeastern Canada. In the "what could go wrong?" department, a batch of cloudiness has appeared east of New England and has been spreading southwestward toward the New Jersey coast this morning.
The clouds over parts of the region are starting to break up, a sign that the predicted drier air from the northeast is making progress.
Cloudiness covers a large area. A few pockets of clearing show up where south winds ride downhill from mountains to lowlands. Air warms and dries with descent. Notice clearing downwind (northwest of) the Smoky Mts.
So, there could be more showers at times late next week as forest we can tell. For now we are stumped. But, it is our beleaf that this weekend you will like being outside. I know a dogwood. It may be a little cool for the beech, but you can take your dog for walk in the bark. What about next weekend? Don't ax.
If the pattern turns out damp as suggested by this map for Sunday, it could turn gray and drizzly from D.C. to New York City for early next week. If the high does not move offshore and no disturbance approaches from the west, it would be sunny and warm.
Two things stand out: (1) a warmup this weekend and early next week (the top graph), and (2) the overall dryness for the weekend and early next week. This graph is for Philadelphia.
Elliot Abrams
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