Tuesday 9 a.m.
The humid regime that has produced perspiratory sultriness so far this month will be replaced by drier, more comfortable air throughout the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday.
However, whether or not this trend reaches the I95 corridor is open to question. Last night's run of the European model suggests there will be some relief, but the models have been inconsistent to one degree or another.
The video shows the drying idea, with a cold front reaching the I-95 corridor Thursday night, then drifting far enough offshore to allow air with lower humidity to filter in. However, if the front stalls instead, clouds and showers could be common Friday and Saturday from D.C. to Boston. The increased cloud cover would limit heating, so the end of the week should not be as hot as tomorrow even if there is little relief from the humidity.
As a the cold front moves across the Great Lakes and into the Appalachians between late tonight (west) and tomorrow night (east), violent thunderstorms can break out to cause damaging winds, hail and cloud bursts of rain. However, the latter can occur even without the front. Toronto was hit by very heavy rain late yesterday... 4-5 inches in just a few hours... enough rain to flood part of the city's subway system.
This map shows the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for severe thunderstorms tomorrow:
Note the caption at the bottom of the map, pointing out that more than 36 million people live in the area highlighted for an elevated risk for severe thunderstorms (an impressive number, though not unusual for these outlooks).
This sounds fishy, but around this time in 1819, a 9 inch long herring weighing more than half a pound fell from the sky onto Main street in downtown Buffalo. Typically, such episodes are caused by waterspouts that lift things out of lakes or other bodies of water then deposit them downwind. As for the weather, the big question in the northeast when the high humidity will abait. Could it be cast out by the cold front arriving later this week? It could be, but the humidity will not be a sinker between now and Thursday. Yes, it is steamy from Fishkill NY to Altoona PA and moist out to Cape Cod.
For most activities, the weather will have some allure indoors and out. With showers around: maybe you clean out the haddock for the halibut. Outdoors, most of the time will be rain free, but there is a catch. Thunderstorms are spawning to our west, and one or two of those storms may come down the pike to affect us today and tomorrow. Predicting when is a real can of worms because some of the storms will fly in by day while others will be night crawlers. Some plans may be in a real pickeral. At the end of the week, the heat and humidity may head down the scales a bit, but in the meantime it will be humid today, and salmon tomorrow and Thursday.
We have a few travel weather requests: Gill's going to the beach and he should have a whale of a time. Mr. Silver is heading for the Adirondacks, but it is warm there. So, you don't need those long johns, silver.
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.
Many people have requested some real spring weather in the Northeast. Looking out two weeks with the European model, it still looks chilly on this flow aloft forecast for March 19.
This map shows accumulations as of 8 a.m. They have continued to increase since then in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.
The northward extent of the snow will be determined the progress of snow that was showing up this picture from the radar serving southwest Ohio. The is what it looked like just after 7PM ET.