Monday 9 AM
This video shows how the weather should unfold this week. It shows how the flow aloft will be southwesterly later in the week, giving the period from Wednesday through Friday the week's highest temperatures.
Is there any colder air in sight? For the Northeast, the answer is "not much." However, this upper air forecast for October 15th shows a shift (probably temporary) that would bring much cooler air into the region. We'll see how this works. 15 day computer model forecasts typically have much larger errors than model forecasts for next few days.
This week's warmth will likely be swept away by a cold front that arrives next weekend, but the cool down may only last 2 or 3 days.
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.
Many people have requested some real spring weather in the Northeast. Looking out two weeks with the European model, it still looks chilly on this flow aloft forecast for March 19.
This map shows accumulations as of 8 a.m. They have continued to increase since then in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.
The northward extent of the snow will be determined the progress of snow that was showing up this picture from the radar serving southwest Ohio. The is what it looked like just after 7PM ET.