Tuesday 9 a.m.
Yes, the GFS operational run from yesterday afternoon included a forecast map for the afternoon of Oct. 10 that suggested heavy wet snow would be falling over the higher elevations of central and northern Pennsylvania. That map is below. The output from the same model run 12 hours later shows no such thing... just a Great Lakes low pressure area causing showers with fairly mild temperatures. That map is below the snowy version.
At this point, we cannot put much faith in either idea.
In the shorter range, southwest winds are sponsoring a warmup in the Northeast from today into tomorrow. A cold front will then move though to cause some showers and in places a thunderstorm... followed by cooler air. The front will stall in Virginia or Norrth Carolina, and a low pressure area forming along the front can then bring rain to the Middle Atlantic states on Friday. The video has more.
Thunderstorms will continue to erupt near the northern edge of the heatwave, enhanced by a series of disturbances rippling along in the upper air flow. This is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's severe thunderstorm outlook for today
... the main upper air steering current moves eastward across the northern Plains, then dives southeastward toward the Middle Atlantic states. The core of this current defines the rim of the hottest weather and serves as a conduit for clusters of thunderstorms.
3. Hot air will be moving east from the Plains, reaching the major East Coast cities Friday and Saturday. This map shows the upper-air flow that will make this happen.
This map shows lightning strikes from 8 a.m. EDT yesterday until 7:20 a.m. EDT today. A concentration of thunderstorms can be seen in the Midwest ahead of the cold front.
At 10 a.m., it was already 85 in Boston and 90 in Newark, N.J. The afternoon will be quite hot as weak cold front approaches. It should become a <u>little</u> more more comfortable this weekend.
Subtle and sometimes hard-to-detect boundaries within the heated air mass help with shower and thunderstorm development and organization. There is no one well-defined cold front.