Tuesday 9 a.m.
Yes, the GFS operational run from yesterday afternoon included a forecast map for the afternoon of Oct. 10 that suggested heavy wet snow would be falling over the higher elevations of central and northern Pennsylvania. That map is below. The output from the same model run 12 hours later shows no such thing... just a Great Lakes low pressure area causing showers with fairly mild temperatures. That map is below the snowy version.
At this point, we cannot put much faith in either idea.
In the shorter range, southwest winds are sponsoring a warmup in the Northeast from today into tomorrow. A cold front will then move though to cause some showers and in places a thunderstorm... followed by cooler air. The front will stall in Virginia or Norrth Carolina, and a low pressure area forming along the front can then bring rain to the Middle Atlantic states on Friday. The video has more.
The storm moving from the Ohio Valley to the Middle Atlantic coast will cause snow and ice, Clearing should follow tomorrow, but another storm should bring snow and ice followed by rain from Maryland to Massachusetts.
Clearing should follow tomorrow, but another storm will cause snow and ice followed by rain from Maryland to Massachusetts late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
The wind will not roar like a lion in the Northeast on Sunday March 1. It certainly won't be lamblike. However, with more cold and snow in the forecast, it might be suitable for this group:
The surface analysis shows to low pressure area off the North Carolina coast, a large cold high pressure area in the northwest corner of the map, and a broad northeasterly flow of cold air between pressure centers. Cold will continue in this whole area through Saturday.
In reaction to this, the flow aloft may become more southwesterly over the Eastern states. This would promote less chill in the Northeast but cause more storminess. The following maps are U.S. model predictions of total snowfall and precipitation from now through next Wednesday.
Is there any warmth in future? The following two maps suggest the answer is yes, but it is only temporary. This map shows projected flow aloft for next Tuesday. If you trace the origin of the air, you see a southwesterly flow of air next Monday (March 2).