Thursday 8 a.m.
In this morning's video, we look at the basis for predicting basically dry weather in the I95 corridor through the coming weekend.
However, looking ahead to next Tuesday and Wednesday, we see a wide range of scenarios. The ECMWF, which did the best on Sandy, has had two different looks on its operational runs yesterday and last evening. The earlier run looked like this:
The next run had this solution for the same time (1 p.m. EST next Wednesday). It is much more threatening for parts of New England getting an important snow and/or rain storm.
One note that may mean nothing: Some of the heat records broken this past summer in various areas were from 1953. In 1953, there was a 4- to 7-inch-deep snowstorm on Nov. 6 in Philadelphia. The storm dumped 27 inches in the Allegheny Mountains, caused wind gusts to 69 mph in Atlantic City and 98 mph on Block Island, R.I. Before taking this any further, I add that there was NO hurricane the week before that storm.
The late-night run of the GFS offered this for the same time (again 1 p.m. next Wednesday):
One final tidbit... William Redfield, who built on the observations made by Benjamin Franklin, wrote about many weather events he encountered in the early 19th century. One was a September hurricane whose eye came right over what is now John F Kennedy International Airport in New York City. It caused severe flooding in the Battery and threw boats onto the beaches at Long Beach and Rockaway Beach on Long Island in 1819. However, that terrible storm had no effect on the subways, and you know why.
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Sheets of windswept rain from NYC to Boston tonight.
Big changes in the Northeast next week
Change to cold about a week away
The exception is northern New England, where temperatures are above average but it is still on the cold side.
No real cold air likely before late next week
...but it may turn cold toward the end of the month
Mid- and late week days next week could be warmer than average by 20-30 degrees
New York City high 62 today, 32 Saturday.