Thursday 8 a.m.
In this morning's video, we look at the basis for predicting basically dry weather in the I95 corridor through the coming weekend.
However, looking ahead to next Tuesday and Wednesday, we see a wide range of scenarios. The ECMWF, which did the best on Sandy, has had two different looks on its operational runs yesterday and last evening. The earlier run looked like this:
The next run had this solution for the same time (1 p.m. EST next Wednesday). It is much more threatening for parts of New England getting an important snow and/or rain storm.
One note that may mean nothing: Some of the heat records broken this past summer in various areas were from 1953. In 1953, there was a 4- to 7-inch-deep snowstorm on Nov. 6 in Philadelphia. The storm dumped 27 inches in the Allegheny Mountains, caused wind gusts to 69 mph in Atlantic City and 98 mph on Block Island, R.I. Before taking this any further, I add that there was NO hurricane the week before that storm.
The late-night run of the GFS offered this for the same time (again 1 p.m. next Wednesday):
One final tidbit... William Redfield, who built on the observations made by Benjamin Franklin, wrote about many weather events he encountered in the early 19th century. One was a September hurricane whose eye came right over what is now John F Kennedy International Airport in New York City. It caused severe flooding in the Battery and threw boats onto the beaches at Long Beach and Rockaway Beach on Long Island in 1819. However, that terrible storm had no effect on the subways, and you know why.
map shows predicted rainfall between now and next Wednesday. This will need to be watched in order to assess the risk of flooding.
Looking farther ahead, it appears a summer version of THE POLAR VORTEX will send much cooler air into the Great Lakes and then the Northeast. The first map shows the flow aloft next Tuesday night. The second map shows what could be a heat wave a week and a half later!
There were numerous thunderstorms yesterday. This is the lightning stroke map covering the period from 8 ET yesterday morning to 7:30 ET this morning. Thunderstorms will be less numerous today, but any that do form can cause briefly strong and gusty winds.
One area of concern is Lake Erie, where unprepared boaters could suddenly be blasted by 60-mph winds. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area where the threat of strong wind exists. The map is below today's forecast video.
Tomorrow, a cold front will cross the Great Lakes, then reach the Northeast by the end of Wednesday. Today, a southwesterly current of very warm air is evident on the surface pressure map.
The center of Arthur (shown here at noon ET) should pass less than 50 miles southeast of Nantucket this evening, causing heavy rain and gusty winds across much of eastern New England. Meanwhile, the Great Lakes and much of the Appalachian region have a lovely Fourth (but take a jacket or sweater as you head out to the fireworks).