Thursday 8 a.m.
In this morning's video, we look at the basis for predicting basically dry weather in the I95 corridor through the coming weekend.
However, looking ahead to next Tuesday and Wednesday, we see a wide range of scenarios. The ECMWF, which did the best on Sandy, has had two different looks on its operational runs yesterday and last evening. The earlier run looked like this:
The next run had this solution for the same time (1 p.m. EST next Wednesday). It is much more threatening for parts of New England getting an important snow and/or rain storm.
One note that may mean nothing: Some of the heat records broken this past summer in various areas were from 1953. In 1953, there was a 4- to 7-inch-deep snowstorm on Nov. 6 in Philadelphia. The storm dumped 27 inches in the Allegheny Mountains, caused wind gusts to 69 mph in Atlantic City and 98 mph on Block Island, R.I. Before taking this any further, I add that there was NO hurricane the week before that storm.
The late-night run of the GFS offered this for the same time (again 1 p.m. next Wednesday):
One final tidbit... William Redfield, who built on the observations made by Benjamin Franklin, wrote about many weather events he encountered in the early 19th century. One was a September hurricane whose eye came right over what is now John F Kennedy International Airport in New York City. It caused severe flooding in the Battery and threw boats onto the beaches at Long Beach and Rockaway Beach on Long Island in 1819. However, that terrible storm had no effect on the subways, and you know why.
This series of maps shows how the extreme cold today in the Northeast is replaced by somewhat milder air tomorrow and Saturday.
This pressure map shows the storm center. The front to the east (red line) marks the boundary between warm air to the south and progressively colder air to the north.
This draft forecast map shows the heaviest snow from the upcoming storm is likely from northern Illinois to northern New England. Tomorrow afternoon, conditions may range from blizzard conditions in central New York to spring style thunderstorms in southern Pennsylvania.
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.