Thursday 9 a.m.
Today's video looks at the forecast ideas through the coming weekend.
A cold front moving toward the North Atlantic coast is responsible for cloudiness from Maine to parts of Pennsylvania this morning and a few showers have accompanied the front. Behind it, a high pressure area will advance southeastward from Wisconsin to reach Pennsylvania by tomorrow morning.
This picture shows the distribution of clouds around 9 a.m. EDT on Thursday, Sept. 5, 2013
Since the high represents the center of a cool and dry air mass, we expect a clear sky over the Northeast region tonight. Temperatures will fall toward autumn levels in the 40s and 50s from central Pennsylvania to New Jersey... and into the 30s farther north. Some normally cold spots could even have a touch of frost toward daybreak.
However, as the high pressure area moves off the East coast on Saturday, there will be a warmup back to late-summer style temperatures. Another cool front should swing through the Northeast on Sunday, but after a one day setback in temperatures (Monday), some very warm air will spread from the Ohio Valley all the way into much of the Northeast for the middle of next week.
Putting the forecast another way:
September is "Be Kind to Writers and Editors" month. Individuals in these fields always have to worry about parts of speech and elements of style. Authorwise, people will accuse them of writing syllibul, & the writer will diacritical death. We must choose our words carefully in the weather business. Why? We want to be write when we say what to wear when & how.
Tonight, low-level air will be coming from the north, so it will be cool by definition. Also, tomorrow will be renound for being a good day to visit grammar's place. That partisimple. What makes us tense is deciding whether an area of showers with a weak cold front Sunday will run on and dash past us, or if instead we have to give you a footnote and say you might need shoe protection against showers.
We don't want to hyphen the idea it'll rain just to adverbs. But, the forecast wouldn't be very phraseworthy if we put the accent on sunshine and it turns out showery for a period. One meteorologist said he felt a pronounced tendency to feel tense before he gave the forecast, and then he felt better enunciate breakfast.
The maps I searched for were from December 1960. I was 13 and was thoroughly overjoyed when Philadelphia got 14.6 inches on Dec. 11 and 12. Schools were closed for three days, something that did not happen again until the Blizzard of January '96.
At midnight, the temperature will be in the 50s to low 60s from Virginia to Southern New England... more like late spring than Christmas time. Meanwhile, cold air will be advancing into western parts of Pennsylvania and New York, driven by strong winds. Earlier, this "cold" air mass looked like it would be more potent than it has turned out to be. This map shows the pressure pattern and some temperatures at 9 a.m.
Temperatures are likely to be in the 50s from Boston to Washington, D.C., during the nighttime hours of Christmas Eve. Dry chillier weather will arrive during Christmas Day, with dry weather lasting until at least Saturday.
This picture, which may or may not have been taken very recently, has a red dot near the North Pole. I cannot confirm that a red dot is there on the ground or that it means anything. We will monitor the area for any signs of activity and advise everyone to maintain the spirit of being nice and not naughty.
Rain with areas of fog should spread from Virginia to New Jersey Monday or Monday night then spread into New England for Tuesday. From the mountains of northeastern Pennsylvania into the interior of New England this could at least start as snow or ice. The GFS for 1 AM New Year's Day looks interesting. See the map below. Whether or not this storm develops and where it will snow or rain cannot be precisely predicted two weeks in advance using these models.
This map is a spaghetti plot showing the upper air currents predicted by members of last night's GFS ensembles. In looking at each line, you see variations, but they all show the idea of major trough centered east of the middle of the country on Christmas Eve.