Friday 8 a.m.
This morning's video steps through the holiday weekend and a few days beyond. In the I-95 corridor, partly sunny, warm and humid looks like the theme. However, thunderstorms and showers will be developing. If we rank the three days in terms of thunderstorm risk, Monday is in first place, Sunday is in second and tomorrow should have the least number of thunderstorms in the area. Drier and cooler air is likely to arrive by Tuesday or Wednesday.
The tropical Atlantic has not been very active so far in terms of tropical storms and hurricanes. However, a system moving west from the African coastline shows signs of growing stronger. The Canadian computer model shows a storm approaching the North Carolina coast a week from Sunday, then has it curving and missing the Northeast with its worst effects. Most other models have nothing like this. Statistics tell us not to rely on track forecasts that far in advance so for now it is simply an item of interest. This map shows the model's location for Sunday, Sept. 8, at 8 a.m. EDT:
This is the chameleon month of March. Always searching for a sense of identity, its days stagger through punches of waning winter, dance with the sunlit caresses of coming spring and hide behind thick clouds through the wind-swept battles between the two.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.
Many people have requested some real spring weather in the Northeast. Looking out two weeks with the European model, it still looks chilly on this flow aloft forecast for March 19.
This map shows accumulations as of 8 a.m. They have continued to increase since then in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.
The northward extent of the snow will be determined the progress of snow that was showing up this picture from the radar serving southwest Ohio. The is what it looked like just after 7PM ET.