Monday 9 AM
In my video, we look at one snow possibility and see what should happen this week.
The Minneapolis area had very heavy snow during the weekend... the whole storm ranking in the top 4 for December historically. So I wondered, "will people be curious about how much snow some big East Coast cities got in the winter following the big Minneapolis December storms?" Maybe I didn't say it exactly that way, but perhaps it is interesting.
Minneapolis had big snow storms during December in 1908, 1982 and 2010. In Philadelphia, seasonal snowfall those years were 20 inches in 1908-09, 39 inches in 1982-83 (19 inches of which came in one blizzard on Feb. 11-12) and 44 inches in 2010-11. At New York City, those seasons brought 20, 27 and 62 inches. (The blizzard that reached Philadelphia in 1982 slipped south of New York City with its heaviest snow.)
What does all of that mean for this winter? Nothing really, except big snows in December at Minneapolis did not coincide with lack of snow fall in Philadelphia and New York City during the subsequent winter.
Meanwhile, dense fog has been a problem for air and ground transportation from New York City through the Philadelphia area to Baltimore and Washington. The fog will thin out as we go through the day as a warm front slides northward (on the map below, you can see the frontal position at 9 AM EST where the isobars along the New Jersey coast change orientation), then rain will arrive as a cold front approaches from the west (the cold front also shows up in the pressure pattern, extending from western New York to southern Ohio). Behind the front, temperatures will be close to typical mid-December levels for a couple of days in the Middle and North Atlantic states.
Cold air pushed well south through the Plains this morning. At 8 AM CST, it was 12 at Amarillo and 31 in Dallas (where it had snowed earlier). However, mild air will start surging north through the Plains on Wednesday, and will then head into the East.
Looking ahead to late next week, some of the computer models suggest a hurricane could affect areas between the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic east of the Bahamas. We are entering the prime part of the Atlantic hurricane season, but at this point there is only one model I am prepared to accept:
The following map shows the individual members of the forecast for the 5,880-meter height line at 500mb. If the 500 mb height is that high, it usually means the weather at the ground in the Northeast is hot. However...
This pressure analysis was made using 9 a.m. ET data. The thin west-east black line is the boundary between hot and cool weather. A low pressure area is moving eastward along the boundary zone, causing showers and thunderstorms. The next low pressure area should send some of the rain farther north.
In the early to middle parts of next week, we expect to see a boundary zone separating hot, humid air to the south from cooler air to the north. A series of ripples or disturbances aloft moving west to east will take turns at enhancing or reducing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Looking beyond next week, we see signs of something that has been missing in the Great Lakes and Northeast just about all summer: hot weather. That may change. Here is a computer model prediction of the upper air flow on Sunday, Aug. 24. Note how the flow appears to run from Arizona all the way to north of New England.
The following regional radar map shows that while there are not any large shields of steady rain, there are pockets and bands of rain and thunderstorms that contain heavy precipitation.