Monday 9 AM
In my video, we look at one snow possibility and see what should happen this week.
The Minneapolis area had very heavy snow during the weekend... the whole storm ranking in the top 4 for December historically. So I wondered, "will people be curious about how much snow some big East Coast cities got in the winter following the big Minneapolis December storms?" Maybe I didn't say it exactly that way, but perhaps it is interesting.
Minneapolis had big snow storms during December in 1908, 1982 and 2010. In Philadelphia, seasonal snowfall those years were 20 inches in 1908-09, 39 inches in 1982-83 (19 inches of which came in one blizzard on Feb. 11-12) and 44 inches in 2010-11. At New York City, those seasons brought 20, 27 and 62 inches. (The blizzard that reached Philadelphia in 1982 slipped south of New York City with its heaviest snow.)
What does all of that mean for this winter? Nothing really, except big snows in December at Minneapolis did not coincide with lack of snow fall in Philadelphia and New York City during the subsequent winter.
Meanwhile, dense fog has been a problem for air and ground transportation from New York City through the Philadelphia area to Baltimore and Washington. The fog will thin out as we go through the day as a warm front slides northward (on the map below, you can see the frontal position at 9 AM EST where the isobars along the New Jersey coast change orientation), then rain will arrive as a cold front approaches from the west (the cold front also shows up in the pressure pattern, extending from western New York to southern Ohio). Behind the front, temperatures will be close to typical mid-December levels for a couple of days in the Middle and North Atlantic states.
Cold air pushed well south through the Plains this morning. At 8 AM CST, it was 12 at Amarillo and 31 in Dallas (where it had snowed earlier). However, mild air will start surging north through the Plains on Wednesday, and will then head into the East.
With a high pressure area over Maine, a low pressure area over western Indiana and an upper-air storm spinning over the western Great Lakes, the stage is set for wet weather in the Middle and North Atlantic states.
This map is a rainfall forecast from the NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center located in State College, PA.
The upper-air flow forecast for this evening shows the trough that helps to support rainfall ahead of the cold front.
After reaching the 80s today from NYC to Boston, it might not be that warm again through much of next week.
A noticeable push of cooler air will spread southward from Ontario and Quebec into the eastern Great Lakes and New England between tomorrow and Saturday.
A cold front from eastern Canada will slide southward along the East coast between late Friday and the end of the weekend. For the area from Philadelphia to Boston, where temperatures will reach the summery 80s each day through Friday, it will mean a noticeable change to cooler weather.