Monday 11 a.m.
As energy from a disturbance in the Mississippi Valley approaches the Southeast states, a low pressure area will form, and that storm will strengthen as it rides northeastward. The ECMWF has been the most threatening model so far, suggesting gale-driven rain for the Middle and North Atlantic states and significant snow northwest of the major I95 cities. The GFS from this morning shows a slightly less stormy outcome. Here is the GFS forecast map for Wednesday evening at 7 p.m. EST. There would be locally heavy rain and gales along the Middle Atlantic coast and into southern New England if this turns out right. The snow/rain line could be in the northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City. A stronger storm that extends more westward would probably bring in enough warming to move the snow-rain line farther north and west. This would reduce the chance of snow near the cities but increase it out toward the mountains.
Here is my video from this morning. The GFS model shown in the video was from the run six hours earlier than the run used for the map above.
Note how far south snow is being predicted, but how no accumulation is indicated for the cities from DC to Boston. This apparently happens because the cold air rushes south, but by the time it reaches the East Coast, the storm developing over the ocean is too far east to cause any snow in the major cities.
A storm will form along second cold front. Its track and strength will determine when, where and if any snow will fall along the Northeast coast. The forecast video follows. After that, I show the GFS snowfall map from last night. It suggests no snow accumulations for the cities between D.C. and Boston. Stay with AccuWeather.com as the story unfolds. The north Georgia mountains may get snow before Buffalo does.
Here is that map. With borderline temperatures and great uncertainty on precipitation placement and amounts, the I-95 corridor from Maryland to Maine could have anything ranging from zero snow (and comments like "Where's all that snow they promised?") to the first accumulations of the season.
This map shows the pressure pattern as of 8 a.m. ET today (Monday, Oct. 27, 2014). A northwesterly flow is still in place across New England, but with weather systems moving steadily eastward, a southwesterly flow of warmer air is on the way.
All foliage colors have peaked across much of the interior sections of New York and New England, but this weekend will offer plenty of dazzling color farther south. This barn and wooded hillside scene was photographed 4 miles west of State College, Pennsylvania, this week.
A storm strengthening off the Middle Atlantic coast will cause episodes of rain and cool gusty winds from Maryland to Maine. The heaviest rain today is focused on the Washington, D.C., to New York City area. Later tonight and tomorrow, the heaviest rain and strongest winds (gusts of 30-40 mph) should spread northeastward across New England. As the storm slowly departs, the weather will improve from southwest to northeast. This map shows the circulation around the storm as of 9 a.m. ET.