Elliot Abrams

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Midweek Northeaster

November 5, 2012; 10:54 AM ET

Monday 11 a.m.

As energy from a disturbance in the Mississippi Valley approaches the Southeast states, a low pressure area will form, and that storm will strengthen as it rides northeastward. The ECMWF has been the most threatening model so far, suggesting gale-driven rain for the Middle and North Atlantic states and significant snow northwest of the major I95 cities. The GFS from this morning shows a slightly less stormy outcome. Here is the GFS forecast map for Wednesday evening at 7 p.m. EST. There would be locally heavy rain and gales along the Middle Atlantic coast and into southern New England if this turns out right. The snow/rain line could be in the northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia and New York City. A stronger storm that extends more westward would probably bring in enough warming to move the snow-rain line farther north and west. This would reduce the chance of snow near the cities but increase it out toward the mountains.

Here is my video from this morning. The GFS model shown in the video was from the run six hours earlier than the run used for the map above.

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About This Blog

Elliot Abrams
Elliot Abrams from AccuWeather.com offers this Northeast Weather Blog for the U.S. with regular updates on NE weather from a leading forecaster and meteorologist.