Thursday 9 a.m.
This video lays out the forecast ideas from today through early next week. It still looks like chillier air will advance with multiple pulses from Canada. By late next week, especially during Halloween week, I think there will be snow showers downwind from the Great Lakes and into the mountains.
As the sun peers through the fog, temperatures reluctantly start their midautumn climb.
We're reaching the high point of raking season, all the leaves from all the trees blending into a crinkly carpet. The leaves lodge in the lawns, shove into shrubs and burrow into the bushes; the cereal box crunchiness amplifies the sound of footsteps. Various raking strategies have been employed... including leaf blowers, but there's always the problem with the leaf lodger... the kind of leaf that only falls into the middle of your bushes or gets stuck in some little rut on your lawn. No matter how many times you rake, no matter how many times you rake again... even to the point of blisters, those leaf lodgers stick like glue or break into tiny little fragments like when you go over a piece of paper with the lawn mower... it isn't that fun to pick up.
And of course, the wind always shifts a bit while you're raking. Send a pillow of leaves forward, and some of the top fringe will be blown back behind you. There's a quick calculation figuring the wind factor for raking. The way it works is, the wind always blows hardest from the direction that gives you the shortest distance between your leaves and where you want to pile them. As for the weather, the sky gets spruced up tomorrow and if deciduous looking for sunshine for the weekend you won't be pining. However, a cold front approaching early next week will put a canopy of clouds overhead, and it'll get quite a bit colder late next week and during Halloween week. However, for those sycamore raking, I say take two aspen and sequoia in the morning.
A deck of clouds about a half-mile overhead spread westward from the Atlantic to much of the I95 corridor from DC to Boston early this morning. These cloud decks can be a forecaster's nightmare in the spring because ...
The map below the video is one of the GFS solutions for where the southeast storm will be early Saturday. The precipitation is predicted to be farther north than suggested by other models.
It is freezing cold in the Northeast this morning, but this map shows that much more mellow mildness has reached the Plains.
Extensive precipitation straddles both sides of the cold front that was moving through central New York and central Pennsylvania as of mid morning. This radar shows the distribution of rain and snow; some temperatures are added.
The cold front approaching the East shows up quite well in this pressure analysis. Several temperatures are plotted to give you a sense for how much the temperature changes behind the cold front. At Chicago, it went from 60 at 4 a.m. to 39 at 5:19, a 21-degree drop in little more than an hour.
Temperatures on Sunday and Monday will range from the 60s in parts of New England to near 80 in Maryland and Virginia. However, a strong cold front will then trigger and perhaps a few thunderstorms as it ushers in air that will be 30-40 degrees colder than it will be ahead of the cold front.