Tuesday 10 a.m.
The strong storm that brought wind-whipped heavy snow to Amarillo, flooding rain from parts of the Gulf states to the Carolinas and an assortment of other ingredients in between is now heading toward the Northeast region. When rain moved into the the higher elevations of western North Carolina this morning, damaging freezing rain broke out in some communities. However, in general, the air mass ahead of this storm is nowhere near as cold as the air masses that were in place for previous storms. Therefore, rain is likely to be dominant through much of Pennsylvania, the lower elevations of New York state and much of central and southern New England.
Once the storm slowly moves away, the Northeast should have an extended period of chilly weather. While not extremely cold, it will become more unseasonable because the long-term average temperatures are trending higher from now into summertime. In parts of the Middle Atlantic states, tomorrow may be about as mild as it gets any time in the next couple of weeks. Later this week, the chilly air mass will be fairly moist, and we may see snow showers lining the Appalachians.
Here are today's videos, one for the Northeast, and the second focusing on Chicago
Waiting for the snow; anticipating spring: Wrigley Field at 10 a.m. CST:
Picture courtesy of EarthCam, Inc.
The peak of the upcoming warmup should come on Monday for much of the Northeast. This map shows computer projections of temperatures at 4 p.m. ET Monday afternoon. Note the 80+ area in Pennsylvania. Cooler air will arrive by midweek.
As a storm slowly develops along the North Carolina coast, rain that was affecting areas of Michigan, Ohio and western Pennsylvania will tend to redevelop farther east and south. A flow from the east (see map) will keep it cool through tomorrow from New York City to Boston.
A sunny triangle is framed by a band of clouds moving southeast from Wisconsin, rain clouds over the Southeast and the western fringe of a North Atlantic storm.
Jumping ahead almost two weeks, map is the 500mb flow forecast for Mothers Day. If correct, the Middle and North Atlantic states would have a sunny day with afternoon temperatures as high as the 80s! Please remember the models do best in the short range.
This map shows the pressure pattern at 9 a.m. ET. As the high moves closer and the storm moves farther away tomorrow and Wednesday, there should be an increase in sunshine with milder afternoons.
This map is the GFS forecast for when weekend rain makes its most northward advance early Sunday. The model then shows drying from north to south during the day Sunday. The ensemble mean has the northern edge in the same area. Looking ahead, it appears that warmer air is coming when May starts.