This video explains the forecast and some of the uncertainties for the weekend and early next week. Two issues are causing concern: (1) How far east will showers get? A plume of moisture from the western Gulf states is likely promote showers and thunderstorms from Louisiana to western Pennsylvania and western New York. It appears now that those showers will not reach the I-95 corridor, but that could change. (2) A storm may form east of the Carolinas. The prevailing thinking is that it will pass well east of New England on Sunday or Monday. But since the storm has not formed yet, it is somewhat of a wild card.
The following video is a time lapse movie of cloud movement following a weak cold frontal passage at my house on July 15th.
This is a satellite picture showing rather tame conditions off the South Atlantic coast at 7:45 AM ET today. The area is being watched for any signs of storm development.
Looking ahead to <strong>next</strong> weekend, the Mothers Day Weekend, we see quite a difference between the GFS model and European models on where cold Canadian air is heading at 2 a.m. Sunday.
Rain is spreading across the Middle Atlantic states today. Dampness will linger from southern New York state to Virginia tomorrow even as the main rain area moves offshore.
For the rest of the week and this weekend, the upper-air "steering winds" will be arranged in two separate streams. The northern branch will send air from central Canada toward New England.
In the Northeast today, the low pressure area shown on this map will move to the East Coast today, pulling the front south as a cold front. Showers and gusty thunderstorm will affect areas south of the front while steady rain and gray skies are common to the north...
This map shows predicted temperatures for 2 p.m. ET today. This is about two hours before the daily high temperature is often reached. Note how close the chilly and warm air masses are to each other in the Northeast and eastern Canada.
Tomorrow is the anniversary of the birth (in 1564) and death (1616) of William Shakespeare. For this weekend, we expect no Tempest in the Hamlets of the Northeast because no Merchant of Menace will be nearby.