Thursday 8 a.m.
This morning was the coolest so far this month in most of the Northeast, and there should be no return of heat wave conditions for the rest of July. However, Saturday is likely to be warmer than today across most of the region.
Here is my morning video:
Tropical storm and hurricane activity usually increases in late summer, and we now see Tropical Storm Dorian in the eastern Atlantic. The storm has top winds just over 60 mph and is heading west-northwest at 17 mph. Just to put it in perspective, the storm center is 2,900 miles east-southeast of New York City, which is almost 200 miles farther than the distance between Miami and Seattle. Here is the collection of track forecasts as shown in the tropical info section of AccuWeather.com.
The profile here is for New York City at 1 p.m. tomorrow. We see it is forecast to be just above freezing near the ground. Will big wet flakes make to the ground or will they melt into rain drops? Or will there be a mix? It's a very close call call.
This pressure map shows the strong circulation around the storm that brought all the warm air northward... and which will force colder air eastward next.
Looking at next week, the GFS ensemble spaghetti plot of upper air winds shows how much agreement there is among members of the ensemble (same model running multiple times using slightly different starting assumptions). The maps are from next Tuesday, Nov. 25, and Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27. There is good agreement on the first map, but a lot of spread two days later.
The location of lake-effect snow bands is tightly controlled by geography, topography and wind. From this pressure analysis, we see why the wind favored heavy snow staying south of the hardest hit Buffalo snow belts earlier today.
If this timing works out, there would be good travel weather for the Northeast Corridor on Wednesday while snow showers cross the Great Lakes and reach the northern and central Appalachians.
This map from one of my tweets yesterday (accuElliot) showed the wind direction most favorable for heavy lake-effect snow in and near Buffalo. Just a minute change in direction greatly affects the location of the heaviest snow, almost as if you were operating a fire hose. The snow is so deep (more than 4 feet in spots and deepening) that officials were considering the use of high lift equipment to extract vehicles.