Tuesday 9 a.m.
Here is this morning's video:
This map includes more than 200,000 lightning strokes in the 23-hour period that ended at 6 a.m. today. Note that one area free of thunderstorms covered most of Minnesota and parts of the Dakotas. That area was experiencing the arrival of a fresh cool air mass from the middle of Canada. We expect the drier air to make it all the way to the East Coast tomorrow night.
However, whether the dry air maintains control for a couple of days or is instead routed quickly remains to be seen. The European forecast model says moisture returns quickly, but the main U.S. model does not. Here are forecast maps from both models for this Friday afternoon:
The European model (ECMWF) has damp weather firmly planted from Philadelphia to Boston. However: The GFS model shows the moisture well south and and east of where it is depicted on the other map. We do not know which idea is better right now, but other changes on the weather maps, upper air charts, satellite and radar images will give us hints about the likely outcome between now and Thursday.
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Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon from the Ohio Valley into the interior Northeast.