Elliot Abrams

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Great Lakes to Northeast: Storm Free

September 25, 2013; 7:35 AM ET

Wednesday 9 a.m.

The sunny days, clear nights and partly foggy dawns continue day after day and should do so until Saturday in Chicago and through the weekend in most of the Northeast. Yesterday, I showed the ECMWF operational forecast (a suite of forecasts is created with each model, but only one becomes the "operational" version) and it showed a threatening-looking storm seemingly headed toward New York City. The model had not shown that the day before, and it looks different again today. The video shows the newest idea. The storm has not formed yet, and so any or all of the formerly proposed tracks and locations are subject to more than the usual amount of error.

Two cloud-producing systems will evolve into systems that eventually change the pattern. The clouds in the Northwest are associated with a strong upper-air trough. Only a portion of that trough will kick eastward by the weekend, and the main trough will be reinforced by another Pacific storm that will arrive in southwestern Canada on Sunday or Monday. That system may have the strength to dislodge the Northeast ridge next week. Meanwhile, the loosely organized cloud areas in the Southeast should organize into a sizable storm over the western Atlantic this weekend. Once it actually takes shape, we should be able to tell where it will go and what it will do.

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About This Blog

Elliot Abrams
Elliot Abrams from AccuWeather.com offers this Northeast Weather Blog for the U.S. with regular updates on NE weather from a leading forecaster and meteorologist.