Elliot Abrams

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Pattern Change or Temporary Tease?

July 20, 2012; 6:12 AM ET

Friday 8:15 a.m.

Temperatures will stay in the 60s and 70s across New Jersey and Pennsylvania today, the coolest day so far this summer. Many areas from Chicago to New York City have had significant rain. Does this mean the over dry spell is over? Does this mean the heat has had it? No. Looking at the GFS ensemble forecast for the next 16 days in Philadelphia, today and tomorrow are the coolest days between now and Aug. 4. However, last night's run did not show temperatures returning to this week's extreme.

In terms of the drought vis a vis (as that really a term?) recent rain in parts of the drought-stricken area, I have these thoughts. 1. Where places got more than about a half inch of rain it was helpful for the short term for grasses and flower beds. Where rain was much heavier, a good part may have run off, but in the short term was helpful. 2. The key now is whether the rain is a one and one thing or the start of some new pattern that will cause more frequent rainfall in the future. If that turns out to be the case, the recent rain will be seen as the turning point. If new rain fails to materialize, then those areas will revert back to the same conditions that have worsened all summer.

This video looks at the weekend and early next week.

This pressure analysis shows the boundary between hot air to the south and cooler air to the north. You can see a few low pressure areas along the front, each increasing the rainfall as it approaches, then introducing some drying upon departure.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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About This Blog

Elliot Abrams
Elliot Abrams from AccuWeather.com offers this Northeast Weather Blog for the U.S. with regular updates on NE weather from a leading forecaster and meteorologist.