Friday 8:15 a.m.
Temperatures will stay in the 60s and 70s across New Jersey and Pennsylvania today, the coolest day so far this summer. Many areas from Chicago to New York City have had significant rain. Does this mean the over dry spell is over? Does this mean the heat has had it? No. Looking at the GFS ensemble forecast for the next 16 days in Philadelphia, today and tomorrow are the coolest days between now and Aug. 4. However, last night's run did not show temperatures returning to this week's extreme.
In terms of the drought vis a vis (as that really a term?) recent rain in parts of the drought-stricken area, I have these thoughts. 1. Where places got more than about a half inch of rain it was helpful for the short term for grasses and flower beds. Where rain was much heavier, a good part may have run off, but in the short term was helpful. 2. The key now is whether the rain is a one and one thing or the start of some new pattern that will cause more frequent rainfall in the future. If that turns out to be the case, the recent rain will be seen as the turning point. If new rain fails to materialize, then those areas will revert back to the same conditions that have worsened all summer.
This video looks at the weekend and early next week.
This pressure analysis shows the boundary between hot air to the south and cooler air to the north. You can see a few low pressure areas along the front, each increasing the rainfall as it approaches, then introducing some drying upon departure.
In the early to middle part of next week, there could be a hint of spring in the region from Illinois to New Jersey. This is a forecast map for next Tuesday morning. The average rain-snow line is midway between the last blue dashed line and the first red dashed line, and.... is that a daring daffodil???
There is uncertainty about how far north a storm from the Gulf states will come on Friday. This morning's NAM is rather bullish on the system. However, it suggests milder weather for the Northeast for a while this weekend before the next cold front arrives.
Many people have requested some real spring weather in the Northeast. Looking out two weeks with the European model, it still looks chilly on this flow aloft forecast for March 19.
This map shows accumulations as of 8 a.m. They have continued to increase since then in Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.
The northward extent of the snow will be determined the progress of snow that was showing up this picture from the radar serving southwest Ohio. The is what it looked like just after 7PM ET.
March comes into the Northeast like... Sam the Dog. He looks ready, doesn't he?