Here is today's video forecast. With each weather system changing character as it moves, it's a good idea to keep checking back for the latest info from AccuWeather.com.
With very warm air across the southern Plains and cool air farther north, the setup favors the development of showers and thunderstorms in the contested zone. As a series of cool air pockets aloft moves over this zone, a new batch of storms takes shape with each disturbance. The result is heavy rain, with the most at locations with multiple events. This map shows one-week rainfall totals from last night's ECMWF (European) mode. Note how varied the prediction is for the Middle Atlantic coast. Only a small change in the size or track of any disturbance during this period could produce a very different result.
On the south side of each new thunderstorm-producing disturbance, violent thunderstorms will erupt.
This map is the GFS forecast for when weekend rain makes its most northward advance early Sunday. The model then shows drying from north to south during the day Sunday. The ensemble mean has the northern edge in the same area. Looking ahead, it appears that warmer air is coming when May starts.
This map shows the GFS model forecast for Saturday evening. In the last day or two, the models have trended northward with the precipitation. If it trends even farther north, the issue of possible snow would need to be addressed. Check back later for updates, please.
The GFS (U.S. Model) predicts a major storm for the Middle Atlantic in the middle or late part of next week. This map is the GFS forecast for next Thursday (April 30) at 8 a.m. ET. Just to put you in a better mood, the second map (for May 4) shows what would be a sunny and pleasantly warm spring day.
This map shows the pressure pattern earlier this morning. You can see the extensiveness of the area of west to east winds. As a storm north of the Upper Great Lakes moves eastward, the flow will become more northwesterly.
This year, the "slight" category has been divided in two: slight and enhanced. When seen together on an SPC map, the progression makes sense. When the term "enhanced" is used alone, it can be a challenge, at least until we get used to it.
This map shows the pressure analysis and locations of fronts and low pressure areas at 9 a.m. EDT today. Places from Philadelphia northeastward will only warm up if and when the warm front in Delaware passes any given spot. Chill air follows the front in Indiana.