Here is today's video forecast. With each weather system changing character as it moves, it's a good idea to keep checking back for the latest info from AccuWeather.com.
With very warm air across the southern Plains and cool air farther north, the setup favors the development of showers and thunderstorms in the contested zone. As a series of cool air pockets aloft moves over this zone, a new batch of storms takes shape with each disturbance. The result is heavy rain, with the most at locations with multiple events. This map shows one-week rainfall totals from last night's ECMWF (European) mode. Note how varied the prediction is for the Middle Atlantic coast. Only a small change in the size or track of any disturbance during this period could produce a very different result.
On the south side of each new thunderstorm-producing disturbance, violent thunderstorms will erupt.
Along I95, rain ruled through midmorning while marshmallows of wet snow changed the gray November landscape to winter white very fast inland. I told Sam The Dog about the snow before it started in the middle of Pennsylvania. He was taking a wait-and-see attitude.
The profile here is for New York City at 1 p.m. tomorrow. We see it is forecast to be just above freezing near the ground. Will big wet flakes make to the ground or will they melt into rain drops? Or will there be a mix? It's a very close call call.
This pressure map shows the strong circulation around the storm that brought all the warm air northward... and which will force colder air eastward next.
Looking at next week, the GFS ensemble spaghetti plot of upper air winds shows how much agreement there is among members of the ensemble (same model running multiple times using slightly different starting assumptions). The maps are from next Tuesday, Nov. 25, and Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27. There is good agreement on the first map, but a lot of spread two days later.
The location of lake-effect snow bands is tightly controlled by geography, topography and wind. From this pressure analysis, we see why the wind favored heavy snow staying south of the hardest hit Buffalo snow belts earlier today.
If this timing works out, there would be good travel weather for the Northeast Corridor on Wednesday while snow showers cross the Great Lakes and reach the northern and central Appalachians.