Monday 9:00 a.m.
A weak high pressure area is promoting fine weather in the I95 corridor today. A low pressure area and cold front moving eastward from Missouri and Illinois will cause rain in the central Great Lakes and strong thunderstorms farther south today.
As this system moves into the East tomorrow, warm, humid air will be in place once again. The result may be an outbreak of locally severe thunderstorms late tomorrow and tomorrow evening. It appears the greatest chance for that may be from eastern New York to parts of eastern Pennsylvania.
Drier air should advance from the Great Lakes into the Northeast later Wednesday and Thursday, only to be followed by another front with showers and thunderstorms as we go into the weekend. One result of a pattern with frequent frontal passages is there is no time for any long-lasting hot spells to get re-established.
Thunderstorms can cause death, injury and damage, yet they can be beautiful... if seen from a distance. The thunderstorm in this picture was photographed between State College and Bellefonte in central Pennsylvania on Friday evening. A short time earlier, this group of clouds included a thunderstorm that knocked down trees southwest of this location.
In the Northeast, a high pressure area now in control will be reinforced by another high from northeastern Canada. In the "what could go wrong?" department, a batch of cloudiness has appeared east of New England and has been spreading southwestward toward the New Jersey coast this morning.
The clouds over parts of the region are starting to break up, a sign that the predicted drier air from the northeast is making progress.
Cloudiness covers a large area. A few pockets of clearing show up where south winds ride downhill from mountains to lowlands. Air warms and dries with descent. Notice clearing downwind (northwest of) the Smoky Mts.
So, there could be more showers at times late next week as forest we can tell. For now we are stumped. But, it is our beleaf that this weekend you will like being outside. I know a dogwood. It may be a little cool for the beech, but you can take your dog for walk in the bark. What about next weekend? Don't ax.
If the pattern turns out damp as suggested by this map for Sunday, it could turn gray and drizzly from D.C. to New York City for early next week. If the high does not move offshore and no disturbance approaches from the west, it would be sunny and warm.
Two things stand out: (1) a warmup this weekend and early next week (the top graph), and (2) the overall dryness for the weekend and early next week. This graph is for Philadelphia.
Elliot Abrams
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