Friday 9 a.m.
The video explores how the weather should unfold this weekend and early next week. While longer-range models show cold air building in Canada and moving south later next week, no snow or freezing weather is in the forecast for the Northeast for the next 10 days.
Nadine has been a fixture over various parts of the open Atlantic for weeks now, and it is likely to still be on the map at the start of October.
Note how the satellite coverage ends over the eastern Atlantic. The satellite that had monitored much of the U.S. and Atlantic Ocean malfunctioned earlier this week. The geostationary satellite that had been monitoring the western U.S. and the Pacific was moved east to make up for some of the lost coverage, but you can see the eastern edge of its picture taking ability from its newest location.
We always look back at our previous forecasts to try to learn from episodes in which we believe we could have done better. The following satellite picture shows dry weather today in just the area that originally looked like it would have more rain.
In other words, while late summers in Phoenix have gotten wetter during the last few years, Boston has become drier. Is there anything more momentous or general that we can say about this?
This enhanced infrared satellite picture shows the cold front in the Northeast and the moisture wrapping around Odille on the southwest part of the map.
Across the Central and Northern states, thunderstorms are less common at this time of year than in late spring and summer. One area that has had more thunderstorms than usual recently is across the Desert Southwest.
Last week, I mentioned that longer range computer models were suggesting a major warmup by next weekend. More recent runs have backed off on the that idea. However, there is extreme uncertainty beyond the next 7-10 days. This can be seen by looking at the following map.
n the forecast office, we often track cold fronts with pressure maps like these. The examples are from 4AM and 10 AM today. You can see that the northern part of the front is moving more quickly than the southern end. The arrival of the front signals the start of the cooling trend that is spreading east.