Tuesday 10 a.m.
There's quite a contrast in conditions between Michigan and Massachusetts. At mid-morning, Detroit had some sunshine with south to southwest winds bringing in milder air. Meanwhile, in the I-95 corridor from Boston to Baltimore, dreariness greeted the dawn and dampness lingered. The surface pressure pattern helps explain this. Along the East Coast, the flow is coming from the Atlantic. The isobars bend around over the Appalachians, and the flow west of there is from southwest to northeast. The lines become closer together as you move north through Michigan, and the wind increases to match that. Finally, the isobars at the far upper-left corner of the map peel away from their tight packing and assume more of a west to east orientation. The change occurs along a cold front that will speed to the east and off the New England coast tomorrow night.
This video explores the current situation and how things should progress for the rest of the week and this weekend.
In the Northeast, a high pressure area now in control will be reinforced by another high from northeastern Canada. In the "what could go wrong?" department, a batch of cloudiness has appeared east of New England and has been spreading southwestward toward the New Jersey coast this morning.
The clouds over parts of the region are starting to break up, a sign that the predicted drier air from the northeast is making progress.
Cloudiness covers a large area. A few pockets of clearing show up where south winds ride downhill from mountains to lowlands. Air warms and dries with descent. Notice clearing downwind (northwest of) the Smoky Mts.
So, there could be more showers at times late next week as forest we can tell. For now we are stumped. But, it is our beleaf that this weekend you will like being outside. I know a dogwood. It may be a little cool for the beech, but you can take your dog for walk in the bark. What about next weekend? Don't ax.
If the pattern turns out damp as suggested by this map for Sunday, it could turn gray and drizzly from D.C. to New York City for early next week. If the high does not move offshore and no disturbance approaches from the west, it would be sunny and warm.
Two things stand out: (1) a warmup this weekend and early next week (the top graph), and (2) the overall dryness for the weekend and early next week. This graph is for Philadelphia.
Elliot Abrams
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