Thursday 9 a.m.
In today's video, we look at the coming cold shot and see the model conflict about a potential storm just before Thanksgiving.
For now, the GFS model takes next week's storm out to sea before it has any real impact on the I-95 corridor northeast of Washington, D.C. The European model brings a storm right up the East coast and makes it strong enough to pull mild air inland and drop more than 1.5 inches of rain on Philadelphia from late Tuesday through Wednesday. It was announced a couple of days ago that a new version of the European model was being introduced. The situation next week will be an early test of its performance.
While on the topic speculative storms, I thought Northeast snowlovers might like the GFS forecast map for two weeks from today (Dec. 6). Remember: we never have to shovel potential.
In other words:
This is national homemade bread week, reminding us that all those with a gift for home baking play important rolls in our communities. In the weather department, fresh, accurate forecasts are important. A good forecaster is bread to help give what's kneaded. That's how we make our dough. If we're wrong, that's when folks give us flax.
Tomorrow, as a cold front approaches the I-95 corridor and some rain could pepper each farm in terms of rain, some places will get little or muffin. As really cold air advances to the yeast on Sunday, a few crumbs of snow can occur... and where cold air slices across the relatively toasty waters of the Great Lakes, snow squalls will slice in.
Elsewhere, with a mix of clouds and sun and a wind that's not loafing, dry air advances. Nighttime temperatures will be in the 20s in the major East Coast cities and daytime highs will crust in the 30s. So, the cold air will be feeling its oats. Definitely a different bran of weather. If you are not dressed for the cold, things will certainly go a-rye, whether you live in Wheaton, Ill., or Keyser, W.Va.
Next week, we'll be watching to see if energy from the west gives rise to a new storm. If the storm reaches the Northeast, things could go against the grain for pre-holiday travelers. However, since today's models have a short shelf life, anything we say about next week may turn out to be half-baked. Don't get caraway just yet.
One final note: When tragedy hits, it is heartwarming to hear about how regular people pitch in to help. It reminds me of the legend of Mr. Nickle. In one town, the fire company was called out to help pump basements. Just after things had gone a-rye, the chief yelled out, "Get the pumper, Nickle." In the ebb and flow of daily lives, such stories are just a crumb in the layer cake of life, a crouton in the salad bar of daily experience, a lonely pepperoni on the pizza of our spinning world. However, during national homemade bread week, thinking about positive things is the icing on the cake. There are enough times to remember what's crummy. Time for me to baguette.
In other words, while late summers in Phoenix have gotten wetter during the last few years, Boston has become drier. Is there anything more momentous or general that we can say about this?
This enhanced infrared satellite picture shows the cold front in the Northeast and the moisture wrapping around Odille on the southwest part of the map.
Across the Central and Northern states, thunderstorms are less common at this time of year than in late spring and summer. One area that has had more thunderstorms than usual recently is across the Desert Southwest.
Last week, I mentioned that longer range computer models were suggesting a major warmup by next weekend. More recent runs have backed off on the that idea. However, there is extreme uncertainty beyond the next 7-10 days. This can be seen by looking at the following map.
n the forecast office, we often track cold fronts with pressure maps like these. The examples are from 4AM and 10 AM today. You can see that the northern part of the front is moving more quickly than the southern end. The arrival of the front signals the start of the cooling trend that is spreading east.
The upper air flow over the East is from the west-southwest now, and some of the moisture associated with the cold front can be traced back to tropical storm activity off the Mexican west coast last week. The same moist air mass set the stage for recent flash floods in Arizona. By early next week, the upper-air flow will be coming to the Northeast region from well up in western Canada, as seen on this forecast map forecast map for next Tuesday: