Now that I have returned from the American Meteorological Society meeting in Atlanta, here is this morning's forecast video:
This map shows how the pressure pattern and resulting changes in wind speed can be assessed. There are no major storms on this map from this morning.
Across the Central and Northern states, thunderstorms are less common at this time of year than in late spring and summer. One area that has had more thunderstorms than usual recently is across the Desert Southwest.
Last week, I mentioned that longer range computer models were suggesting a major warmup by next weekend. More recent runs have backed off on the that idea. However, there is extreme uncertainty beyond the next 7-10 days. This can be seen by looking at the following map.
n the forecast office, we often track cold fronts with pressure maps like these. The examples are from 4AM and 10 AM today. You can see that the northern part of the front is moving more quickly than the southern end. The arrival of the front signals the start of the cooling trend that is spreading east.
The upper air flow over the East is from the west-southwest now, and some of the moisture associated with the cold front can be traced back to tropical storm activity off the Mexican west coast last week. The same moist air mass set the stage for recent flash floods in Arizona. By early next week, the upper-air flow will be coming to the Northeast region from well up in western Canada, as seen on this forecast map forecast map for next Tuesday:
As chilly air pours into the northern Plains and backs into the Rockies, snow can break out at higher elevations. Gillette, in northeastern Wyoming at an elevation of just over 4,000 feet, could have a close shave with snow on Thursday. This map shows the setup.
The main U.S. computer model shows very cool air coming into the Northeast this coming weekend. However, the same model shows a complete reversal by the following weekend.