Monday 10 AM
Now that cold air has enveloped the Great Lakes and Northeast, it appears likely to persist all week. It appears this will be the chilliest January cold outbreak in four years.
In 1992, meteorologists Steve Nogueira and Weir Lundstedt wrote about a type of trough that was involved in generated unexpectedly great amounts of snow. The troughs under study extended northwest from a low pressure area and were located underneath a pool of cold air several miles overhead. Most common in central and northern New England, these features can produce localized bands of very heavy snow, in some cases producing a foot of snow in areas where standard computer models were only suggesting a couple of inches of snow would fall.
By taking the first three letters of the last names of the scientists writing about these troughs, you get Nor Lun, and so the troughs became known as Norlun Troughs. Such a system might develop tomorrow along or near the New England coast, perhaps between Boston and Portland.
Aside from the possible Norlun Trough development and lakes related snows downwind from the Great Lakes the weather maker coming through should only create small accumulations. Of course, it does not take much snow falling in metropolitan area to cause travel problems.
Another weak low pressure area and frontal system could cross the Great Lakes on Wednesday and move of the East Coast Thursday. After that, there is a chance that a stronger storm could take shape to cause accumulating snow from (at least) Maryland to Massachusetts on Friday. This video has more.
Here is a working draft of snow expectations for the Northeast from later today into tomorrow. I use the term "draft" because the map is updated frequently. Our other stories and forecasts on AccuWeather.com can keep you current.
This map shows where the storms were at 10:18 AM ET. That cluster of storms may hold together, but in response to daytime heating, new ones can pop up at other places this afternoon.
On this map, two such features (short waves) stand out today. The one in Ohio caused some thunderstorms in Michigan and Indiana yesterday. The other short wave is causing thunderstorms this morning from western Wisconsin to northern Missouri.
Scotty the Dog will be four-months-old in four days. On walks during hot weather, he is quick to seek out shady spots. He has yet to experience any cold weather, but he looks like he will be ready when it arrives (not any time soon!).
Erika's heavy rainfall separated into two areas yesterday. This is the Morehead City, North Carolina, radar, showing an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms that dumped more 4 inches of rain on parts of the coastal Carolinas this morning.
Tropical Storm Erika could eventually affect Florida and other sections of the Gulf Coast or Southeast, but for now it poses no threat for the Northeast. This map shows the storm as of early this morning.
The second concern is Erika. The map below shows what many different models area saying. While there is a good agreement in the short range, the longer-range spread is quite larger, with tracks ...