Monday 8:30 AM
Oklahoma had a really hot summer. The average temperature was 83.1, more than 2 degrees above the long-term average. From July 18th through Aug. 9th, only one day had a high temperature of less than 100, and on that day (Aug. 5), it was 99! Today, however, Oklahoma City had its earliest subfreezing reading ever! However, even though it is chilly out this morning, the chill will soon be out of the area. And, in the Northeast, where a couple of chilly shots are coming in this week, next week could very well be milder.
It is national metric week, and supporters encourage people to jump in with both feet and support the metric system every inch of the way.
In weather forecasting we jump back and forth with units, but I think the main yardstick of public acceptance is people still want their temperatures in fahrenheit. There is a good reason for this. In our common experience, the coldest day in winter is often around zero while the hottest day in summer approaches 100. A zero to 100 scale is quite attractive. In contrast, people get out the bug killer when they see millipeders or centipeders in their homes! I mean, suppose gram is coming over. One of the main attractions of metric units is how basic measurements get decimated.
Today is dry throughout the Northeast and most of the Great Lakes region, but people wonder if the weather will stay the same furlong. Will it be okay for yardwork? Since it will be dry today, things look good. The same applies for construction crews who have to install footers. It will be dry across the 378 kilometers between Chicago and Detroit today. Rain will spread through the I-95 corridor later today and tonight. We estimate that the many areas will get less than a quarter of an inch of rain (less than a centimeter). It is often difficult to fathom exactly how much rain a storm will deliver when it is just in the formative stages like this one, but by most measures, it seems there will be on-and-off rain and drizzle from gray skies.
Sometime we get snow showers across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast in mid-October. However, results from various metrics studies suggest we could wind up with a foot in our mouth if we give such predictions more than an ounce of trust at this point. In fact, temperatures could inch higher next weekend. Want updates? Follow the liter, AccuWeather.com
In the Northeast, a high pressure area now in control will be reinforced by another high from northeastern Canada. In the "what could go wrong?" department, a batch of cloudiness has appeared east of New England and has been spreading southwestward toward the New Jersey coast this morning.
The clouds over parts of the region are starting to break up, a sign that the predicted drier air from the northeast is making progress.
Cloudiness covers a large area. A few pockets of clearing show up where south winds ride downhill from mountains to lowlands. Air warms and dries with descent. Notice clearing downwind (northwest of) the Smoky Mts.
So, there could be more showers at times late next week as forest we can tell. For now we are stumped. But, it is our beleaf that this weekend you will like being outside. I know a dogwood. It may be a little cool for the beech, but you can take your dog for walk in the bark. What about next weekend? Don't ax.
If the pattern turns out damp as suggested by this map for Sunday, it could turn gray and drizzly from D.C. to New York City for early next week. If the high does not move offshore and no disturbance approaches from the west, it would be sunny and warm.
Two things stand out: (1) a warmup this weekend and early next week (the top graph), and (2) the overall dryness for the weekend and early next week. This graph is for Philadelphia.
Elliot Abrams
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