Monday 8:30 AM
Oklahoma had a really hot summer. The average temperature was 83.1, more than 2 degrees above the long-term average. From July 18th through Aug. 9th, only one day had a high temperature of less than 100, and on that day (Aug. 5), it was 99! Today, however, Oklahoma City had its earliest subfreezing reading ever! However, even though it is chilly out this morning, the chill will soon be out of the area. And, in the Northeast, where a couple of chilly shots are coming in this week, next week could very well be milder.
It is national metric week, and supporters encourage people to jump in with both feet and support the metric system every inch of the way.
In weather forecasting we jump back and forth with units, but I think the main yardstick of public acceptance is people still want their temperatures in fahrenheit. There is a good reason for this. In our common experience, the coldest day in winter is often around zero while the hottest day in summer approaches 100. A zero to 100 scale is quite attractive. In contrast, people get out the bug killer when they see millipeders or centipeders in their homes! I mean, suppose gram is coming over. One of the main attractions of metric units is how basic measurements get decimated.
Today is dry throughout the Northeast and most of the Great Lakes region, but people wonder if the weather will stay the same furlong. Will it be okay for yardwork? Since it will be dry today, things look good. The same applies for construction crews who have to install footers. It will be dry across the 378 kilometers between Chicago and Detroit today. Rain will spread through the I-95 corridor later today and tonight. We estimate that the many areas will get less than a quarter of an inch of rain (less than a centimeter). It is often difficult to fathom exactly how much rain a storm will deliver when it is just in the formative stages like this one, but by most measures, it seems there will be on-and-off rain and drizzle from gray skies.
Sometime we get snow showers across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast in mid-October. However, results from various metrics studies suggest we could wind up with a foot in our mouth if we give such predictions more than an ounce of trust at this point. In fact, temperatures could inch higher next weekend. Want updates? Follow the liter, AccuWeather.com
Jumping ahead almost two weeks, map is the 500mb flow forecast for Mothers Day. If correct, the Middle and North Atlantic states would have a sunny day with afternoon temperatures as high as the 80s! Please remember the models do best in the short range.
This map shows the pressure pattern at 9 a.m. ET. As the high moves closer and the storm moves farther away tomorrow and Wednesday, there should be an increase in sunshine with milder afternoons.
This map is the GFS forecast for when weekend rain makes its most northward advance early Sunday. The model then shows drying from north to south during the day Sunday. The ensemble mean has the northern edge in the same area. Looking ahead, it appears that warmer air is coming when May starts.
This map shows the GFS model forecast for Saturday evening. In the last day or two, the models have trended northward with the precipitation. If it trends even farther north, the issue of possible snow would need to be addressed. Check back later for updates, please.
The GFS (U.S. Model) predicts a major storm for the Middle Atlantic in the middle or late part of next week. This map is the GFS forecast for next Thursday (April 30) at 8 a.m. ET. Just to put you in a better mood, the second map (for May 4) shows what would be a sunny and pleasantly warm spring day.
This map shows the pressure pattern earlier this morning. You can see the extensiveness of the area of west to east winds. As a storm north of the Upper Great Lakes moves eastward, the flow will become more northwesterly.