Monday 9 a.m.
An early week storm mostly over the ocean, a front arriving in the Northeast Wednesday night and another front approaching next weekend will all bring some changes to the Northeast region's weather. However, none of the systems look like they will major or long-lasting when they get into the East.
The one that develops east of the Middle Atlantic coast tonight is tricky. Most of its precipitation will fall back into the ocean. However, with onshore (from the east) flow in the low levels of the atmosphere bringing some moisture inland, and the storm skirting the coast, rain and drizzle can affect areas from eastern Virginia to eastern Maine as it moves up the coast. This video has more:
High clouds are common this morning from Pennsylvania to central New England. These clouds typically do not cause any precipitation that reaches the ground. However, we can often see streamers of snow descending from the clouds as in this picture.
We always look back at our previous forecasts to try to learn from episodes in which we believe we could have done better. The following satellite picture shows dry weather today in just the area that originally looked like it would have more rain.
In other words, while late summers in Phoenix have gotten wetter during the last few years, Boston has become drier. Is there anything more momentous or general that we can say about this?
This enhanced infrared satellite picture shows the cold front in the Northeast and the moisture wrapping around Odille on the southwest part of the map.
Across the Central and Northern states, thunderstorms are less common at this time of year than in late spring and summer. One area that has had more thunderstorms than usual recently is across the Desert Southwest.
Last week, I mentioned that longer range computer models were suggesting a major warmup by next weekend. More recent runs have backed off on the that idea. However, there is extreme uncertainty beyond the next 7-10 days. This can be seen by looking at the following map.
n the forecast office, we often track cold fronts with pressure maps like these. The examples are from 4AM and 10 AM today. You can see that the northern part of the front is moving more quickly than the southern end. The arrival of the front signals the start of the cooling trend that is spreading east.