This video discusses the upcoming weather from the Great Lakes through the Middle and North Atlantic states. An east-west front separating chilly air to the north from warm air to the south will be a battle zone until Friday, when a developing storm rearranges the fronts and then pulls dry air eastward.
With several low pressure areas moving along the frontal boundary, repeated episodes of rain can be expected from the Ohio valley to the Middle Atlantic states. This map shows the European Model rainfall forecast from last night through this Friday evening.
The National Weather Service's Chicago office compiled charts showing the five coldest winters since record keeping began in 1872, and then what happened in the spring and summer seasons after these very cold winters. The period from Dec, 1, 2013 - March 31, 2014, was the very coldest such period in the entire span of records.
In other words, while late summers in Phoenix have gotten wetter during the last few years, Boston has become drier. Is there anything more momentous or general that we can say about this?
This enhanced infrared satellite picture shows the cold front in the Northeast and the moisture wrapping around Odille on the southwest part of the map.
Across the Central and Northern states, thunderstorms are less common at this time of year than in late spring and summer. One area that has had more thunderstorms than usual recently is across the Desert Southwest.
Last week, I mentioned that longer range computer models were suggesting a major warmup by next weekend. More recent runs have backed off on the that idea. However, there is extreme uncertainty beyond the next 7-10 days. This can be seen by looking at the following map.
n the forecast office, we often track cold fronts with pressure maps like these. The examples are from 4AM and 10 AM today. You can see that the northern part of the front is moving more quickly than the southern end. The arrival of the front signals the start of the cooling trend that is spreading east.
The upper air flow over the East is from the west-southwest now, and some of the moisture associated with the cold front can be traced back to tropical storm activity off the Mexican west coast last week. The same moist air mass set the stage for recent flash floods in Arizona. By early next week, the upper-air flow will be coming to the Northeast region from well up in western Canada, as seen on this forecast map forecast map for next Tuesday: