Thursday 10 a.m.
An area of rain and thunderstorms that covered West Virginia and the western parts of New York and Pennsylvania is spreading east and northeast today. Moisture from Andrea will come next, and the I95 corridor could have very heavy rain as the storm approaches from the southwest tomorrow and tomorrow night. Street and highway flooding could cause a real slowdown for travelers and commuters, but it appears the storm will move quickly enough that there is little chance for flooding on the major rivers.
My Northeast video from Thursday morning:
Andrea, the season's first tropical storm, will move northeast along the Eastern Seaboard causing heavy rain and gale-force gusts. The rain can fall very heavily, causing sudden street flooding and very poor visibility. Quite a few models are in use, and this map shows there is widespread agreement on where the center of this storm is going.
It does look warmer for the weekend, but every time the warm air tries to extend into New England it gets chopped down. There could be more showers at times Sunday and early next week as forest we can tell. If any forecast gives you a headache, why not take a friend's advice: Take two aspen; sequoia in the morning.
This map from 5AM ET shows the cold front that is continuing toward this Northeast and Middle Atlantic states. Temperatures stayed up in the 70s all night ahead of the front but it turned noticeably cooler after the front moved through.
The cold front that will cut off the heat will generate strong gusty thunderstorms as it moves southeastward today. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center highlights the most likely area for these severe thunderstorms today and tonight.
As the high pressure area in the Northeast moves away, the the southwesterly flow pattern will shift eastward. This means Wednesday could be the hottest day of the week from D.C. to Boston. A cold front will follow.
This is a satellite picture showing rather tame conditions off the South Atlantic coast at 7:45 AM ET today. The area is being watched for any signs of storm development.
When looked at this way, you can see two distinct flows in the East: one from the south with moisture, and one from the west that is dry. There is a problem, however: the model solutions evolve over time, and as we get closer to next Monday afternoon (the time the forecast maps are using), the lines and orientations will probably change.