A Welcome Warm Winter for Most of the U.S. Could Worsen Drought Conditions in the South
(State College, PA - October 23, 2007) - AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi has issued his 2007-08 Winter Season Forecast addressing issues of average temperature and precipitation impacting the nation. His forecast called for "heart" of the winter to be very warm across much of the U.S., with only the northwest receiving average or above average cold and snow. However, warm weather combined with below average precipitation could be problematic for the drought-stricken southern states.
"November into December and March and April will be closest to what we consider winter weather, with the chance of cold and snowy conditions, but once we're into the heart of winter, from mid and late December into February, we may see one of the top ten warmest winters ever recorded for the southeastern U.S. The core of the warm weather will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas," Bastardi said.
Bastardi noted that while this winter may be economically friendly for most fuel-purchasing consumers, it could spell trouble for the southeast, already in the midst of a dire drought. "We will know in the next three to four weeks whether a storm from the tropics might arrive to help the southeast drought situation. If that doesn't materialize, those states are looking at a very dry winter, with precipitation amounts less than half of normal in some areas."
AccuWeather.com believes that the combination of what may be a top-five La Niña event combined with a cycle of warming water temperatures in the Atlantic are the key signals to the coming winter season. "Those factors (La Niña and warm water cycles) will be running the show," said Bastardi. "In what is climatologically the coldest part of the season - January and early February - many locations in the East will be at their warmest, relative to normal."
Bastardi forecasts that the 2007-08 winter may be as warm as the winters of 1998-99 and 2001-02, both warmer-than-average seasons. Bastardi said, "More than 75 percent of the days this winter may have temperatures above normal in most of the nation, southeast of a line that runs from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. Only the Pacific Northwest should experience cooler-than-normal temperatures."
The complete AccuWeather.com Winter Season forecast complete with more specific details and frequent weekly updates is available to Joe Bastardi's Energy Pro™ and Private Clients.
To learn more about the 2007-08 Winter Forecast or to receive larger versions of associated images and maps, please contact Justin Roberti.
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